Trump's trade deals, especially with Pacific nations, are making the U.S.United States economically stronger at home, asand shown by equipment production jumping by 17%, as well as stronger against China geopolitically. As China loses its economic power over the U.S.,United States, it loses its leverage when deciding whether to attack Taiwan. In just six months, Trump has repositioned theAmerica U.S. as the world's leading economic and military powerhouse.
Trump's tariffs have hidden costs, like falling imports that limit consumer choices and raise prices for goods that aren't produced in the UUnited States.S. Reduced variety and quality from disrupted supply chains erode economic freedom, quietly straining budgets for those least equipped to cope. WhileAny Trumpsuccess maycan be ableattributed totro tout some success, that's largely the result of companies preparing short-term precautions as they await a potential policy reversal.
There's a 55% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, compared to a 27% in 2026 and a 12% in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.