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Snapshot 8:Tue, Jul 22, 2025 7:51:05 PM GMT last edited by Brian

Trump Announces US-Philippines Trade Deal

Trump HostsAnnounces US-Philippines Leader,Trade Calls for Obama ProsecutionDeal

Above: U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. meet in the White House on July 22, 2025. Image copyright: Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Trump's trade deals, especially with Pacific nations, are making the U.S. economically stronger at home, as shown by equipment production jumping by 17%, as well as stronger against China geopolitically. As China loses its economic power over the U.S., it loses its leverage when deciding whether to attack Taiwan. In just six months, Trump has repositioned the U.S. as the world's leading economic and military powerhouse.

Trump's tariffs have hidden costs, like falling imports that limit consumer choices and raise prices for goods that aren't produced in the U.S. Reduced variety and quality from disrupted supply chains erode economic freedom, quietly straining budgets for those least equipped to cope. While Trump may be able to tout some success, that's largely the result of companies preparing short-term precautions as they await a potential policy reversal.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, compared to a 27% in 2026 and a 12% in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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