Economist

John Mearsheimer on why the West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis

Metaculus

Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?

Donald Trump

Nikki Haley

Jens Stoltenberg

Thomas Gift

Ron Filipkowski

J.D. Vance

Randall Stone

Dan Caldwell

Kori Schake

Charles Kupchan

John Bolton

Mark Esper

James G. Stavridis

"I doubt President Trump will withdraw from NATO."

"I do not expect Trump to withdraw from NATO."

"Donald Trump wants NATO to be strong. He wants us to remain in NATO."

America's there "100 percent [if NATO allies pay their fair share]."

"He might try to pull the United States out of NATO."

"In a second Trump term, we'd almost certainly withdraw from NATO."

Trump "talked many times about getting out of NATO behind closed doors and publicly. So that's just a fact."

"Trump is setting up the pretext for cutting off aid to Ukraine and pulling the US out of NATO."

Will the US Pull Out of NATO?

Liz Truss

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jake Sullivan

Dmitry Peskov

John Kirby

Daniel DePetris

Mykhailo Podolyak

Petro Poroshenko

Andrey Illarionov

Dmytro Kuleba

David Von Drehle

Oleksiy Reznikov

Sergei Shoigu

Dmitry Gorenburg

Ivan Losev

Aleksey Arestovich

Andrzej Duda

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Jason Jay Smart

Beth Knobe

Dmitri Alperovitch

Richard Branson

When Will the Russia-Ukraine War End?

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Germany and Norway announced on Monday that they are drawing up a bilateral defense treaty to cement their defense cooperation, which has intensified since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. The treaty will be prepared by both defense ministers and represents the latest in a series of recent security agreements between European countries.

Euractiv

The Defense Post

Germany and Norway announced on Monday that they are drawing up a bilateral defense treaty to cement their defense cooperation, which has intensified since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. The treaty will be prepared by both defense ministers and represents the latest in a series of recent security agreements between European countries.

The two NATO allies will enhance surveillance against maritime and airborne threats in the northern Atlantic, focusing on key areas like the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. gap and Bear gaps. This follows historical monitoring of the GIUK gap during the Cold War, which was crucial for Soviet submarines entering the Atlantic.

The Straits Times

The two NATO allies will enhance surveillance against maritime and airborne threats in the northern Atlantic, focusing on key areas like the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. gap and Bear gaps. This follows historical monitoring of the GIUK gap during the Cold War, which was crucial for Soviet submarines entering the Atlantic.

Germany and the U.S. will provide five Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, as announced by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius during his recent visit to Washington. This comes amid Russia's increased long-range strikes, including ballistic missiles that only the Patriot system can effectively intercept.

Interfax News

EuroNews

Germany and the U.S. will provide five Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, as announced by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius during his recent visit to Washington. This comes amid Russia's increased long-range strikes, including ballistic missiles that only the Patriot system can effectively intercept.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced that Norway will fund one Patriot system for Ukraine, with Germany covering two others. President Trump previously indicated that Washington would send advanced weapons, including Patriots, to Ukraine through NATO, marking a notable policy shift after a brief pause in arms shipments.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced that Norway will fund one Patriot system for Ukraine, with Germany covering two others. President Trump previously indicated that Washington would send advanced weapons, including Patriots, to Ukraine through NATO, marking a notable policy shift after a brief pause in arms shipments.

The proposed German-Norwegian treaty supports broader European efforts to strengthen defense through bilateral agreements in response to threats from Russia and potential U.S. withdrawal under Trump. Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted that the war in Ukraine is uniting Europeans, including non-EU countries like Norway and Britain.

The proposed German-Norwegian treaty supports broader European efforts to strengthen defense through bilateral agreements in response to threats from Russia and potential U.S. withdrawal under Trump. Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted that the war in Ukraine is uniting Europeans, including non-EU countries like Norway and Britain.

Both countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine against Russia's aggression, enhancing the protection of critical underwater infrastructure in the North Atlantic and North Sea.

Both countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine against Russia's aggression, enhancing the protection of critical underwater infrastructure in the North Atlantic and North Sea.

Economist #0

Metaculus #0

Germany and Norway announced on Monday they are drawing up a bilateral defense treaty to cement their defense cooperation, which has intensified since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. The treaty will be prepared by both defense ministers and represents the latest in a series of recent security agreements between European countries.</span

Euractiv #

The Defense Post #

Germany and Norway announced on Monday they are drawing up a bilateral defense treaty to cement their defense cooperation, which has intensified since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. The treaty will be prepared by both defense ministers and represents the latest in a series of recent security agreements between European countries.

The two NATO allies will enhance surveillance against maritime and airborne threats in the northern Atlantic, focusing on key areas like the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap and Bear gaps. This follows historical monitoring of the GIUK gap during the Cold War, which was crucial for Soviet submarines entering the Atlantic.

The Straits Times #

The two NATO allies will enhance surveillance against maritime and airborne threats in the northern Atlantic, focusing on key areas like the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap and Bear gaps. This follows historical monitoring of the GIUK gap during the Cold War, which was crucial for Soviet submarines entering the Atlantic.

Interfax News #

EuroNews #

Both countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine against Russia's aggression, enhancing protection of critical underwater infrastructure in the North Atlantic and North Sea. This agreement complements NATO structures and addresses concerns about recent sabotage on its underwater infrastructure.

Both countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine against Russia's aggression, enhancing protection of critical underwater infrastructure in the North Atlantic and North Sea. This agreement complements NATO structures and addresses concerns about recent sabotage on its underwater infrastructure.

This defense pact represents essential European unity against Russian aggression. The bilateral treaty strengthens NATO's collective defense while addressing critical infrastructure vulnerabilities that Russia has repeatedly targeted. Enhanced surveillance of strategic maritime corridors protects vital supply lines.

This defense pact represents essential European unity against Russian aggression. The bilateral treaty strengthens NATO's collective defense while addressing critical infrastructure vulnerabilities that Russia has repeatedly targeted. Enhanced surveillance of strategic maritime corridors protects vital supply lines.

Germany Norway Atlantic Surveillance

Germany And Norway Plan Closer Defence Cooperation Amid Wider Bilateral Security Push

These agreements risk escalating tensions unnecessarily and could provoke further Russian responses. The focus on military buildup diverts resources from diplomatic solutions that might end the Ukraine conflict more effectively. Bilateral pacts may undermine broader NATO coordination structures.

These agreements risk escalating tensions unnecessarily and could provoke further Russian responses. The focus on military buildup diverts resources from diplomatic solutions that might end the Ukraine conflict more effectively. Bilateral pacts may undermine broader NATO coordination structures.

Norway ready to financially support Germany's initiative to transfer Patriot systems to Ukraine  media

There is a 23% chance there will be a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 23% chance there will be a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus #

Carsten Koall/Contributor/picture alliance via Getty Images

Germany, Norway Sign Defense Pact Amid Russia Tensions

Military spending

Germany

Norway

Non-NATO agreements risk escalating tensions unnecessarily and could provoke further Russian responses. The focus on military buildup diverts resources from diplomatic solutions that might end the Ukraine conflict more effectively, for example. Alternative pacts may undermine broader NATO coordination structures.

Non-NATO agreements risk escalating tensions unnecessarily and could provoke further Russian responses. The focus on military buildup diverts resources from diplomatic solutions that might end the Ukraine conflict more effectively, for example. Alternative pacts may undermine broader NATO coordination structures.

Germany, Norway Sign Defense Pact Amid Russia Tensions

Germany, Norway Sign Defense Pact Amid Russia Tensions

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Germany, Norway Sign Defense Pact Amid Russia Tensions

Germany, Norway Sign Defense Pact Amid Russia Tensions

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Schake

Kupchan

Vance

Trump

Stone

Bolton

Haley

Filipkowski

Articles on this story

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