This peace deal represents a breakthrough after years of failed negotiations and broken ceasefires. The agreement provides a clear roadmap with specific timelines that create political pressure for implementation. Qatar's mediation and US backing give this accord more credibility than previous attempts, offering genuine hope for millions of displaced civilians.
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The vague language and immediate disagreements over key provisions show this is just another hollow agreement destined to fail. M23's refusal to commit to withdrawal and the lack of enforcement mechanisms make implementation unlikely. Without addressing root causes or establishing justice mechanisms, this deal won't deliver lasting peace any more than previous failed accords.
There's a 60% chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.