Guardian

UK inflation rises unexpectedly to 3.6% driven by food and fuel prices

Metaculus

Keir Starmer

Office for Budget Responsibility

Ben Riley-Smith

Goldman Sachs

KPMG

Naomi Smith

Robert Colvile

UK Trade & Business Commission

Sharon Graham

"Today's #GDP growth figures are still a long way from @Keir_Starmer's target of 2.5% and it is far from clear that we are heading in the right direction."

"The OBR will drop the forecast for 2025/26 growth from 2% to around 1%."

"Labour are promising to be the fastest-growing country in the G7. And our growth forecast is 2% or less every single year of this parliament? Yeah, good luck with that."

"The economy is expected to grow by just over 1 per cent this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2025."

Research shows that "deep alignment with the EU on goods and services will deliver 2.2% economic growth to the UK."

"Closer ties with the EU could deliver growth of up to 2.2%. Clawing back up to half the damage caused by Brexit."

"Certainly, yes [when pressed on whether he was seeking to achieve growth of 2.5 per cent]."

Will the UK Economy Grow By 2% GDP In a Year Under Labour?

<span>Food price inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month to 4.5% annually, reaching its highest rate since February 2024, with increases in cakes, meat, milk, eggs and cheddar cheese contributing to the rise. Transport costs also contributed significantly, with air fares rising 7.9% between May and June 2025, the largest June increase since 2018.</span

Office for National Statistics

Food price inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month to 4.5% annually, reaching its highest rate since February 2024, with increases in cakes, meat, milk, eggs and cheddar cheese contributing to the rise. Transport costs also contributed significantly, with air fares rising 7.9% between May and June 2025, the largest June increase since 2018.

<span>Motor fuel prices fell by 9.0% in the year to June 2025, compared with a larger decline of 10.9% in May, as petrol prices dropped only 0.5 pence per liter between May and June versus a 3.0 pence decline in the same period last year. Diesel prices similarly fell less sharply, declining 0.6 pence per liter compared to a 4.8 pence drop in June 2024.</span

Daily Mail

Motor fuel prices fell by 9.0% in the year to June 2025, compared with a larger decline of 10.9% in May, as petrol prices dropped only 0.5 pence per liter between May and June versus a 3.0 pence decline in the same period last year. Diesel prices similarly fell less sharply, declining 0.6 pence per liter compared to a 4.8 pence drop in June 2024.

<span>Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased from 3.5% to 3.7% in June, while services inflation remained steady at 4.7%, both measures closely watched by the Bank of England for domestic price pressures. The inflation rate remains well above the Bank of England's 2% target, though a rate cut is still expected at next month's meeting.</span

BBC News

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased from 3.5% to 3.7% in June, while services inflation remained steady at 4.7%, both measures closely watched by the Bank of England for domestic price pressures. The inflation rate remains well above the Bank of England's 2% target, though a rate cut is still expected at next month's meeting.

<span>Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged that working people are "still struggling with the cost of living" and emphasized government actions including increasing the national minimum wage for 3 million workers and extending the £3 bus fare cap. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride criticized Labour's tax decisions, stating they are "killing growth and stoking inflation" and making everyday essentials more expensive for families.</span

Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged that working people are "still struggling with the cost of living" and emphasized government actions including increasing the national minimum wage for 3 million workers and extending the £3 bus fare cap. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride criticized Labour's tax decisions, stating they are "killing growth and stoking inflation" and making everyday essentials more expensive for families.

<span>The inflation increase comes amid economic challenges including two consecutive months of GDP contraction and mounting speculation about future tax rises, with experts suggesting a £31 billion funding gap that the Chancellor may need to address. Business leaders have warned that the £25 billion increase in employer national insurance contributions could force companies to cut jobs and pass costs to consumers through higher prices.</span

The inflation increase comes amid economic challenges including two consecutive months of GDP contraction and mounting speculation about future tax rises, with experts suggesting a £31 billion funding gap that the Chancellor may need to address. Business leaders have warned that the £25 billion increase in employer national insurance contributions could force companies to cut jobs and pass costs to consumers through higher prices.

Guardian #0

Metaculus #0

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UK Inflation Rises to 3.6%

United Kingdom

Politics

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Governance

Rising inflation reflects global pressures beyond government control, with fuel and food price increases driven by international markets rather than domestic policy. The government has already acted to support workers through minimum wage increases and fare caps.

<span>Rising inflation reflects global pressures beyond government control, with fuel and food price increases driven by international markets rather than domestic policy. The government has already acted to support workers through minimum wage increases and fare caps.</span>

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June, Exceeding Expectations

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June, Exceeding Expectations

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June, Exceeding Expectations

The Spin

The Controversies

Graham

Riley-Smith

Colvile

Responsibility

Commission

Smith

Starmer

Articles on this story

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UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June, Exceeding Expectations

UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June, Exceeding Expectations

The Spin

The Controversies

Graham

Riley-Smith

Colvile

Responsibility

Commission

Smith

Starmer

Articles on this story

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