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Snapshot 7:Tue, Jul 15, 2025 7:35:31 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Brazil's Chief Justice Responds to Trump, Denies Persecution of Bolsonaro

Brazil's Chief Justice Responds to Trump, Denies Persecution of Bolsonaro

Above: Brazilian Supreme Court Chief Justice Luís Roberto Barroso on June 4, 2025. Image copyright: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Brazil is a sovereign and democratic nation, whose judicial system operates independently and in strict accordance with due process, so Trump's attempt to blackmail the country with economic retaliation in a bid to halt the prosecution of Bolsonaro is doomed to fail. If anything, this new tariff has actually exposed that the Bolsonaros are no patriots, but rather people who would attack their own country to try to save their skin.

One may or may not fully agree with President Trump's tariffs. Regarding Brazil, there's indeed a potential a risk that his decision to impose a new 50% tariff on the country's goods could backfire and strengthen Lula and Moraes' hand at home. However, Trump is not wrong when it comes to understanding the situation in Brazil as democratic norms and the rule of law in the country are collapsing due to the authoritarian Supreme Court overstepping its bounds to silence political criticism from the right.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 32% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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