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Brazil's Chief Justice Responds to Trump, Denies Persecution of Bolsonaro

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The Spin

One may agree or not with Trump's tariffs. Regarding Brazil, there's indeed a risk that his decision to impose a new 50% tariff on the country's goods could backfire and actually strengthens Lula and Moraes' hand at home. However, Trump is not wrong when it comes to understanding the situation in Brazil as democratic norms and the rule of law in the country are collapsing due to the authoritarian Supreme Court overstepping its bounds to silence political criticism from the right.

Trump's crude blackmail attempt against Brazil is doomed to fail and represents an authoritarian fantasy that a sovereign nation's judiciary would halt prosecutions to avoid economic retaliation. The tariff threat undermines U.S. leadership by violating World Trade Organization commitments while strengthening Lula's position domestically. Trump's justifications are riddled with lies since the U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Brazil, not a deficit.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 32% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2