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Trump's crude blackmail attempt against Brazil is doomed to fail and represents an authoritarian fantasy that a sovereign nation's judiciary would halt prosecutions to avoid economic retaliation. The tariff threat undermines U.S. leadership by violating World Trade Organization commitments while strengthening Lula's position domestically. Trump's justifications are riddled with lies since the U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Brazil, not a deficit.
There's a 32% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.