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Snapshot 8:Wed, Jul 16, 2025 4:09:11 AM GMT last edited by Scott

Nvidia Resumes China AI Chip Sales Amid CEO Beijing Visit

Nvidia Resumes China AI Chip Sales Amid CEO Beijing Visit

Above: The Nvidia logo displayed on a smartphone in Shanghai, China on June 18, 2025. Image copyright: CFOTO/Future Publishing/Getty Images

The Spin

Granting China renewed access to advanced chips represents a catastrophic abdication of strategic responsibility. These processors don't merely power consumer applications — they're the computational backbone of military AI systems, surveillance networks, and hypersonic weapons programs. Washington's restrictions targeted limiting China's access to high-performance computing for military applications, yet this reversal hands Beijing the very tools to accelerate authoritarian control and military modernization.

These ham-fisted export curbs epitomize strategic myopia at its worst. By forcing China to develop indigenous alternatives, Washington effectively gifted Beijing the very technological independence it sought to prevent. Nvidia's market share plummeted, replaced entirely by Chinese innovation that export controls "turbocharged" into existence. The policy's fundamental folly lies in believing you can stifle progress through prohibition — instead of maintaining American technological hegemony, these controls merely accelerated China's march toward self-sufficiency while sacrificing billions in revenue.

Granting China renewed access to advanced chips represents a catastrophic abdication of strategic responsibility. These processors don't merely power consumer applications — they're the computational backbone of military AI systems, surveillance networks, and hypersonic weapons programs. Washington's restrictions targeted limiting China's access to high-performance computing for military applications, yet this reversal hands Beijing the very tools to accelerate authoritarian control and military modernization.

These ham-fisted export curbs epitomize strategic myopia at its worst. By forcing China to develop indigenous alternatives, Washington effectively gifted Beijing the very technological independence it sought to prevent. Nvidia's market share plummeted, replaced entirely by Chinese innovation that export controls "turbocharged" into existence. The policy's fundamental folly lies in believing you can stifle progress through prohibition — instead of maintaining American technological hegemony, these controls merely accelerated China's march toward self-sufficiency while sacrificing billions in revenue.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 5% chance that Nvidia will have its AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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