Trump's 50 percent tariff on Brazil targets the country's authoritarian regime that has aggressively persecuted Bolsonaro and his right-wing allies while issuing unlawful censorship orders for U.S. social media companies and aligning with China especially in digital infrastructure at the expense of Western digital security. This is a much needed pushback against attacks on democratic institutions and American values.
Trump used to claim that tariffs were all about national security and reducing trade deficits. However, he has now decided to levy them against Brazil only to help an ally who like him sought to carry out a coup to overturn an election defeat and remain in power. This is an evil and megalomaniacal interference in domestic affairs of a foreign country — one that sets a dangerous precedent and that is likely to backfire and benefit Lula.
There's a 33% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.