Metaculus

When will the first fully autonomous surgery or procedure be performed on a human?

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"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

Chinese surgeons have reportedly performed successful remote robotic liver surgeries over 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles) using satellite communication. A team in Lhasa, Tibet operated on patients in Beijing via the Apstar-6D satellite, orbiting 36,000 kilometers (22,370 miles) above Earth.

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Chinese surgeons have reportedly performed successful remote robotic liver surgeries over 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles) using satellite communication. A team in Lhasa, Tibet operated on patients in Beijing via the Apstar-6D satellite, orbiting 36,000 kilometers (22,370 miles) above Earth.

Led by Professor Rong Liu of the PLA General Hospital, the team treated a 68-year-old man with liver cancer and a 56-year-old woman with hepatic hemangioma. Each procedure reportedly lasted between 105 and 124 minutes and was completed without complications.

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Led by Professor Rong Liu of the PLA General Hospital, the team treated a 68-year-old man with liver cancer and a 56-year-old woman with hepatic hemangioma. Each procedure reportedly lasted between 105 and 124 minutes and was completed without complications.

This marks the first time liver surgeries have been performed over such a long distance using satellite networks. The team overcame 632 milliseconds of communication latency, significantly above the traditional 200-millisecond safety threshold for remote surgery.

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This marks the first time liver surgeries have been performed over such a long distance using satellite networks. The team overcame 632 milliseconds of communication latency, significantly above the traditional 200-millisecond safety threshold for remote surgery.

Despite the delay, robotic arm accuracy was maintained within 0.32 millimeters using predictive control algorithms and neural network-based compensation. Blood loss during the surgeries was reported to be minimal at approximately 20 milliliters per patient.

Despite the delay, robotic arm accuracy was maintained within 0.32 millimeters using predictive control algorithms and neural network-based compensation. Blood loss during the surgeries was reported to be minimal at approximately 20 milliliters per patient.

The system featured automatic dual-link redundancy, switching to a 5G backup within 280 milliseconds if the satellite connection failed. And by prioritizing surgical commands and imaging, bandwidth usage was reduced by 62%, ensuring high-definition video quality was maintained.

The system featured automatic dual-link redundancy, switching to a 5G backup within 280 milliseconds if the satellite connection failed. And by prioritizing surgical commands and imaging, bandwidth usage was reduced by 62%, ensuring high-definition video quality was maintained.

Both patients were discharged within 24 hours, meeting recovery standards for in-person liver surgery. China plans further testing before deploying the technology in remote regions, disaster zones, and areas with limited medical infrastructure.

Both patients were discharged within 24 hours, meeting recovery standards for in-person liver surgery. China plans further testing before deploying the technology in remote regions, disaster zones, and areas with limited medical infrastructure.

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The surgical team overcame significant technical challenges including 632 milliseconds of communication delay, far exceeding the traditional 200-millisecond safety threshold for remote surgery. Advanced control systems maintained robotic arm precision within 0.32 millimeters despite the high latency through adaptive compensation technology and neural network predictions.</span

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The surgical team overcame significant technical challenges including 632 milliseconds of communication delay, far exceeding the traditional 200-millisecond safety threshold for remote surgery. Advanced control systems maintained robotic arm precision within 0.32 millimeters despite the high latency through adaptive compensation technology and neural network predictions.

Two patients underwent successful liver procedures: a 68-year-old man with liver cancer and a 56-year-old woman with hepatic hemangioma. Both surgeries lasted between 105 and 124 minutes with minimal blood loss of approximately 20 milliliters each and no major complications reported.</span

Two patients underwent successful liver procedures: a 68-year-old man with liver cancer and a 56-year-old woman with hepatic hemangioma. Both surgeries lasted between 105 and 124 minutes with minimal blood loss of approximately 20 milliliters each and no major complications reported.

The breakthrough extends the operational range of robotic surgery from the previous 5,000-kilometer limit using 5G networks to potentially over 150,000 kilometers using satellite technology. This advancement enables surgical interventions in remote areas, disaster zones, and conflict regions where traditional medical infrastructure is unavailable or compromised.</span

The breakthrough extends the operational range of robotic surgery from the previous 5,000-kilometer limit using 5G networks to potentially over 150,000 kilometers using satellite technology. This advancement enables surgical interventions in remote areas, disaster zones, and conflict regions where traditional medical infrastructure is unavailable or compromised.

The system incorporated multiple safety features including dual-link redundancy that automatically switches to 5G backup within 280 milliseconds if satellite connection fails. Quality of Service protocols prioritized surgical commands and imaging data while reducing bandwidth requirements by 62 percent while maintaining high-definition video quality.</span

The system incorporated multiple safety features including dual-link redundancy that automatically switches to 5G backup within 280 milliseconds if satellite connection fails. Quality of Service protocols prioritized surgical commands and imaging data while reducing bandwidth requirements by 62 percent while maintaining high-definition video quality.

Both patients were discharged within 24 hours post-surgery, meeting recovery standards comparable to traditional in-person procedures. China plans to integrate this satellite-assisted surgical technology into routine healthcare services, particularly for areas with limited medical access and emergency response situations.</span

Both patients were discharged within 24 hours post-surgery, meeting recovery standards comparable to traditional in-person procedures. China plans to integrate this satellite-assisted surgical technology into routine healthcare services, particularly for areas with limited medical access and emergency response situations.

While technically impressive, this technology raises concerns about the militarization of medical advances and potential security vulnerabilities in satellite-dependent systems. The emphasis on battlefield applications suggests dual-use capabilities that could complicate international medical cooperation. Questions remain about the long-term reliability and cost-effectiveness of such complex systems for routine healthcare delivery.

While technically impressive, this technology raises concerns about the militarization of medical advances and potential security vulnerabilities in satellite-dependent systems. The emphasis on battlefield applications suggests dual-use capabilities that could complicate international medical cooperation. Questions remain about the long-term reliability and cost-effectiveness of such complex systems for routine healthcare delivery.

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China Pioneers Remote Surgeries Using Robots And A Satellite

The success of these procedures validates years of research into overcoming the fundamental physics limitations of long-distance communication. By solving the latency problem that has plagued remote surgery, this achievement opens possibilities for space medicine and emergency response in previously unreachable locations. The technology represents a natural evolution from 5G-based telesurgery to truly global surgical capabilities.

The success of these procedures validates years of research into overcoming the fundamental physics limitations of long-distance communication. By solving the latency problem that has plagued remote surgery, this achievement opens possibilities for space medicine and emergency response in previously unreachable locations. The technology represents a natural evolution from 5G-based telesurgery to truly global surgical capabilities.

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Surgery via satellite: China conducts ultra-remote medical procedures  SatNews

China Performs World's First Satellite-Guided Remote Surgery

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This breakthrough represents a quantum leap in medical technology that could save countless lives in underserved regions. The ability to perform precision surgery across vast distances using satellite networks breaks down geographical barriers that have long prevented access to life-saving procedures. China's investment in this technology demonstrates forward-thinking leadership in addressing global healthcare inequities.

This breakthrough represents a quantum leap in medical technology that could save countless lives in underserved regions. The ability to perform precision surgery across vast distances using satellite networks breaks down geographical barriers that have long prevented access to life-saving procedures. China's investment in this technology demonstrates forward-thinking leadership in addressing global healthcare inequities.

China Performs World's First Satellite-Guided Remote Surgery

China Performs World's First Satellite-Guided Remote Surgery

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China Performs World's First Satellite-Guided Remote Surgery

China Performs World's First Satellite-Guided Remote Surgery

The Spin

The Controversies

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

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