Trump’s decision to pause weapons deliveries is a smart, necessary step to protect U.S. stockpiles and create space for diplomacy. He’s showing real leadership by refusing to fuel a war without a path to peace. Putin respects that courage, and together they can achieve real progress — from Ukraine to the Middle East — if both sides stay focused on ending conflict, not prolonging it.
Halting critical weapons to Ukraine mid-conflict weakens its defense and plays into Putin’s hands. Trump’s decision undermines allies, emboldens Russia, and delays peace by giving Moscow more leverage. Far from bold diplomacy, it’s a dangerous gamble that signals retreat — not resolve — and only strengthens Putin’s belief that he can outlast Western support.
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by March 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.