Germany’s sabre‑rattling masks brittle sinews; its bid to counter Russia rings hollow. The nation is crippled by military atrophy, civilian unease with conflict, and hollowed-out industry. Even its shipyards — the backbone of any maritime might — are on life support. Mental fragility, bureaucratic bloat, and foreign vultures circling its naval assets expose Germany's soft underbelly.
Germany must act. Its Arctic presence is no longer optional but essential. As Russia militarizes the High North and China’s ambitions grow, Berlin must confront reality: Diplomacy alone cannot shield maritime lifelines or uphold international order. Sending the navy signals a certain resolve, defends freedom of navigation, and secures Europe's vulnerable northern flank.
There is a 50% chance that by July 2040 the Arctic will be essentially ice-free, according to the Metaculus prediction community.