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Germany must act. Its Arctic presence is no longer optional but essential. As Russia militarizes the High North and China’s ambitions grow, Berlin must confront reality: Diplomacy alone cannot shield maritime lifelines or uphold international order. Sending the navy signals a certain resolve, defends freedom of navigation, and secures Europe's vulnerable northern flank.
There is a 50% chance that by July 2040 the Arctic will be essentially ice-free, according to the Metaculus prediction community.