Jerome Powell

Oxford Economics

Torsten Sløk

Kristina Hooper

U. S. Chamber of Commerce

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

Howard Lutnick

Polymarket

Peter Berezin

Olu Sonola

Samy Chaar

American Bankers Association

Joseph Brusuelas

Wells Fargo

James Doti

Michael Gapen

William J. Luther 

Matt Schoeppner

John Hussman

Bruce Kasman

Bernard Markstein

Yelena Maleyev

Mike Englund

Steven Hanke

Mark Zandi

Paul Gruenwald

Neil Shearing

Brian Moynihan

J.P. Morgan

Larry Summers

Metaculus

"We believe there will be no recession in 2025."

The likelihood of a recession is "getting close to 50-50."

"Barring an unforeseeable event, the economy should grow even better in 2025 than it did in 2023 and 2024."

"The threat of a recession is real."

"Contrary to popular perception, the US is at greater risk of a recession than it was in early 2022."

Will the US Go into Recession in 2025?

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After <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2025/senate-advances-trumps-tax-bill-despite-gop-opposition">voting 51-49 to send it to the chamber floor</a>, the U.S. Senate on Monday began debating President Donald Trump's proposed tax legislation, titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a separate version of which had already passed the House, with Trump requesting it be sent to his desk by July 4.

Al Jazeera

Wall Street Journal

Congress

After voting 51-49 to send it to the chamber floor, the U.S. Senate on Monday began debating President Donald Trump's proposed tax legislation, titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a separate version of which had already passed the House, with Trump requesting it be sent to his desk by July 4.

The bill contains tax cuts — including permanent extensions of Trump's 2017 cuts — and reductions to Medicaid and Affordable Care Act programs. It also raises the debt ceiling by $5T and imposes new restrictions on food stamps and renewable energy incentives.

The Hill

Foxnews

The bill contains tax cuts — including permanent extensions of Trump's 2017 cuts — and reductions to Medicaid and Affordable Care Act programs. It also raises the debt ceiling by $5T and imposes new restrictions on food stamps and renewable energy incentives.

Democrats, who warn that 11.8 million people would lose healthcare coverage, oppose the Medicaid cuts, which Republicans have defended as necessary to ensure benefits go to the truly needy. Some Republicans have said the cuts aren't strong enough.

Newsweek

Democrats, who warn that 11.8 million people would lose healthcare coverage, oppose the Medicaid cuts, which Republicans have defended as necessary to ensure benefits go to the truly needy. Some Republicans have said the cuts aren't strong enough.

The bill also includes stricter immigration enforcement priorities, such as $46.5 billion for border wall construction and $12 billion to hire 10,000 new immigration officers. It also offers temporary protection from enforcement to immigrant farm and hospitality workers.

Townhall

The bill also includes stricter immigration enforcement priorities, such as $46.5 billion for border wall construction and $12 billion to hire 10,000 new immigration officers. It also offers temporary protection from enforcement to immigrant farm and hospitality workers.

A few Republicans, including Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, have opposed the bill over Medicaid and debt concerns.

Daily Wire

A few Republicans, including Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, have opposed the bill over Medicaid and debt concerns.

Democrats, meanwhile, remain unified against the bill, forcing amendment votes to delay passage. If the bill passes the Senate, the House will have to re-vote on the legislation because of new provisions added by the Senate.

Democrats, meanwhile, remain unified against the bill, forcing amendment votes to delay passage. If the bill passes the Senate, the House will have to re-vote on the legislation because of new provisions added by the Senate.

This historic bill delivers Trump's promise to forgotten Americans — cutting taxes, securing the border, protecting children, and empowering families. Republicans must unite now to pass it and launch a new Golden Age for the nation.

This historic bill delivers Trump's promise to forgotten Americans — cutting taxes, securing the border, protecting children, and empowering families. Republicans must unite now to pass it and launch a new Golden Age for the nation.

President Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill — America’s Retribution

Trump's bill isn't beautiful — it’s reckless. It slashes Medicaid, explodes the deficit, and rewards the wealthy while gutting protections for working families. Republicans should reject a plan that breaks promises and hurts the vulnerable.

Trump's bill isn't beautiful — it’s reckless. It slashes Medicaid, explodes the deficit, and rewards the wealthy while gutting protections for working families. Republicans should reject a plan that breaks promises and hurts the vulnerable.

MSNBC

As far-right megabill inches forward, Trump takes aim at the Senate parliamentarian

Left or right, this bill isn't for the average American — it's a donor-class jackpot that, even if you're in favor of slashing federal health care costs, will explode the national deficit and rig the system for corporations and billionaires. When Wall Street wins and working families lose, it's not policy, it's a payoff.

Left or right, this bill isn't for the average American — it's a donor-class jackpot that, even if you're in favor of slashing federal health care costs, will explode the national deficit and rig the system for corporations and billionaires. When Wall Street wins and working families lose, it's not policy, it's a payoff.

SenRandPaul

Jacobin

Trumps Tax Bill Is Bought and Paid for by Big Business

There's a 73.1% chance that  Trump will sign into law the reconciliation bill in July or August 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 73.1% chance that Trump will sign into law the reconciliation bill in July or August 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Senate Begins Floor Debate Over Trump's Budget Bill

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Sløk

Summers

Commerce

Sonola

Berezin

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