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Nearly a third of Tuvalu citizens enter ballot for climate-linked visa to relocate to Australia

A climate crisis, a ballot, and a chance at a new life in Australia

Metaculus

Solar Radiation Mitigation of Climate Change

Charles III

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Joe Biden

Nancy Pelosi

Xi Jinping

Rishi Sunak

Kamala Harris

Justin Trudeau

Narendra Modi

Bill Gates

Pope Francis

Janet Yellen

Emmanuel Macron

Olaf Scholz

Angela Merkel

Yuval Noah Harari

António Guterres

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Barack Obama

Kofi Annan

Michael Mann

James Inhofe

Greta Thunberg

David Attenborough

Giorgia Meloni

Fumio Kishida

Patrick Michaels

Jane Goodall

Bjorn Lomborg

Freeman Dyson

"[C]limate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax."

"I believe in climate change caused by human beings. What I'm skeptical about is the glib notion that it means the end of the world as we know it."

"The clock is no longer just ticking, it is banging."

"There is no long-term prosperity without action on climate change."

"The time for seeking global solutions [to climate change] is running out."

"The climate crisis is the existential threat. That's not hyperbole; it's a fact."

"[W]e are killing our planet."

Climate change is "above all, an existential crisis."

"Climate change is one of the greatest challenges mankind faces."

"If we don't take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon."

"Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast."

"We haven't yet exceeded the bounds of viable human civilisation, but we're getting close."

Is Climate Change an Existential Threat?

Simon Stiell

Jim Skea

World Meteorological Organization

Myles Allen

Sheldon Whitehouse

"At this point it is virtually certain we will blow through [the 1.5C] target."

'"On our current path... we will reach that 1.5-degree limit sometime in the 2030s."

"Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible [to limit global warming to 1.5C]"

"We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5C world."

We won't have "extreme cases like of 4 degrees [Celsius] warming," but will "miss the 2-degree goal."

"[C]utting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees."

Keeping global warming to 1.5C is "entirely doable" and "simply a matter of political willpower."

Will Global Warming Be Limited to 1.5°C or "Well Below" 2°C?

NASA

Adam Frank

Emily Gilbert

Larissa Palethorpe

Ingo Waldmann

Andrew Fraknoi

Amaury Triaud

Hiroyuki Tako Ishikawa

Keming Zhang

Dirk Schulze-Makuch

Arwen E Nicholson

"There is no planet B [habitable to human beings]."

"I would never say we can never reach the stars and possible habitable planets."

"The discovery of Gliese 12 b is a stepping stone towards finding potentially habitable planets."

The discovery of several smaller and cooler stars is "the best bet for finding habitable planets."

"[W]e're more likely to detect planets in the habitable zone with TESS [NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite]."

Will We Find Another Inhabitable Planet?

<span>Australia offers 280 visas annually to Tuvalu citizens under the Falepili Union treaty signed in 2024, described as the first climate migration agreement of its kind worldwide. The program provides permanent residency and allows free movement between countries for work, study and family connections.</span

France 24

Australia offers 280 visas annually to Tuvalu citizens under the Falepili Union treaty signed in 2024, described as the first climate migration agreement of its kind worldwide. The program provides permanent residency and allows free movement between countries for work, study and family connections.

<span>Scientists predict Tuvalu will become uninhabitable within 80 years due to rising sea levels, with two of the archipelago's nine coral atolls already largely submerged. The low-lying nation faces regular flooding, saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion threatening freshwater supplies and infrastructure.</span

Barrons

Scientists predict Tuvalu will become uninhabitable within 80 years due to rising sea levels, with two of the archipelago's nine coral atolls already largely submerged. The low-lying nation faces regular flooding, saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion threatening freshwater supplies and infrastructure.

<span>The Falepili Union commits Australia to defend Tuvalu against natural disasters, health pandemics and military aggression while recognizing the nation's continued sovereignty despite climate impacts. The treaty also grants Australia influence over Tuvalu's future defense agreements with other countries.</span

Couriermail

The Falepili Union commits Australia to defend Tuvalu against natural disasters, health pandemics and military aggression while recognizing the nation's continued sovereignty despite climate impacts. The treaty also grants Australia influence over Tuvalu's future defense agreements with other countries.

<span>University of Sydney geographer John Connell warns that mass emigration could drain Tuvalu of skilled professionals and young talent, potentially imperiling the nation's future development. Small island states have limited job opportunities, with agriculture difficult and fisheries offering limited employment despite potential.</span

University of Sydney geographer John Connell warns that mass emigration could drain Tuvalu of skilled professionals and young talent, potentially imperiling the nation's future development. Small island states have limited job opportunities, with agriculture difficult and fisheries offering limited employment despite potential.

<span>The climate visa program differs from temporary Pacific labor schemes by granting permanent residency before departure and providing immediate access to Australian health, education and social services. Unlike other migration programs, it has no age or disability restrictions and enables maintaining connections with Tuvalu.</span

The climate visa program differs from temporary Pacific labor schemes by granting permanent residency before departure and providing immediate access to Australian health, education and social services. Unlike other migration programs, it has no age or disability restrictions and enables maintaining connections with Tuvalu.

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Nearly One-Third of Pacific Nation Tuvalu Seeks Australian Climate Visa

Australia

Climate change

Environment/energy

The Falepili Union was negotiated in secrecy without proper parliamentary process, representing modern-day colonialism at its worst. Australia gains veto power over Tuvalu's defense decisions while draining the nation of its people and cultural knowledge. This treaty erodes sovereignty rather than protecting it.

<span>The Falepili Union was negotiated in secrecy without proper parliamentary process, representing modern-day colonialism at its worst. Australia gains veto power over Tuvalu's defense decisions while draining the nation of its people and cultural knowledge. This treaty erodes sovereignty rather than protecting it.</span>

Third of Tuvalu Citizens Seek Australia Climate Visas

Third of Tuvalu Citizens Seek Australia Climate Visas

Nearly One-Third of PacificTuvalu NationCitizens TuvaluSeek SeeksAustralia Australian Climate VisaVisas

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Third of Tuvalu Citizens Seek Australia Climate Visas

Nearly One-Third of PacificTuvalu NationCitizens TuvaluSeek SeeksAustralia Australian Climate VisaVisas

The Spin

The Controversies

Trump

Michaels

Harris

Sunak

Francis

Biden

Macron

Thunberg

Merkel

Attenborough

Guterres

Mann

Whitehouse

Guterres

Skea

Stiell

Gates

Thunberg

Mann

Nicholson

Fraknoi

Ishikawa

NASA

Palethorpe

Articles on this story

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