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Buenos Aires Times

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Metaculus

Will Javier Milei be reelected as President of Argentina before January 1, 2028?

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Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported on Monday that the country's economy in 2025 Q1 expanded year-on-year to 5.8 percent and to 0.8 percent in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported on Monday that the country's economy in 2025 Q1 expanded year-on-year to 5.8 percent and to 0.8 percent in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

This comes as gross fixed capital formation surged 31.8% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter, with increases in machinery and equipment and transportation equipment sectors, as private consumption rose 11.6% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter.

This comes as gross fixed capital formation surged 31.8% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter, with increases in machinery and equipment and transportation equipment sectors, as private consumption rose 11.6% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter.

Exports grew by 7.2 percent — a first-quarter record, according to the Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo — and imports surged 42.8% year-on-year, while public expenditure decreased.

Exports grew by 7.2 percent — a first-quarter record, according to the Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo — and imports surged 42.8% year-on-year, while public expenditure decreased.

While this rate is the largest expansion in the Argentine economy since 2022 Q3, the median estimate by analysts polled by Bloomberg and Reuters was a growth of 6.1 percent year-on-year and of 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Bloomberg.com

While this rate is the largest expansion in the Argentine economy since 2022 Q3, the median estimate by analysts polled by Bloomberg and Reuters was a growth of 6.1 percent year-on-year and of 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Last week, INDEC reported that unemployment in Argentina rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025 — up from 6.4% in 2024 Q4 — marking an end to the decline in unemployment since 2024 Q2 and the highest rate since 2021 Q2.

Last week, INDEC reported that unemployment in Argentina rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025 — up from 6.4% in 2024 Q4 — marking an end to the decline in unemployment since 2024 Q2 and the highest rate since 2021 Q2.

In an annual report released on Tuesday, U.S.-based Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained the country's classification as a standalone market — the lowest tier — despite rumors that Argentina could be reclassified as a frontier or an emergent market.

In an annual report released on Tuesday, U.S.-based Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained the country's classification as a standalone market — the lowest tier — despite rumors that Argentina could be reclassified as a frontier or an emergent market.

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Buenos Aires Herald #

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La Derecha Diario #

The Rio Times #

Buenos Aires Times #

Metaculus #

Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported on Monday that the country's economy in 2025 Q1 expanded year-on-year to 5.8 percent — the largest since 2022 Q3 — and to 0.8 percent in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported on Monday that the country's economy in 2025 Q1 expanded year-on-year to 5.8 percent  — the largest since 2022 Q3 — and to 0.8 percent in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Imports soared 42.8% annually and 17.7% quarterly, significantly outpacing exports which dropped 1.5% quarterly but grew 7.2% annually, creating a substantial trade imbalance during the recovery period.</span

Imports soared 42.8% annually and 17.7% quarterly, significantly outpacing exports which dropped 1.5% quarterly but grew 7.2% annually, creating a substantial trade imbalance during the recovery period.

Forecasts

This comes as last week Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025, representing an increase from 6.4% in the previous quarter and marking the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

This comes as last week Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025, representing an increase from 6.4% in the previous quarter and marking the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained Argentina's classification as a standalone market, the lowest tier, preventing up to $3 billion in potential investments from entering the country due to persistent capital control restrictions.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained Argentina's classification as a standalone market, the lowest tier, preventing up to $3 billion in potential investments from entering the country due to persistent capital control restrictions.

Milei's libertarian economic reforms are delivering spectacular results, with Argentina even outpacing China's growth rate. The 5.8% expansion proves that fiscal discipline and free-market policies work better than the populist disasters of previous administrations. Investment is booming at 31.8% growth, showing business confidence in the new direction.

Milei's libertarian economic reforms are delivering spectacular results, with Argentina even outpacing China's growth rate. The 5.8% expansion proves that fiscal discipline and free-market policies work better than the populist disasters of previous administrations. Investment is booming at 31.8% growth, showing business confidence in the new direction.

The economic recovery masks serious structural problems, with unemployment hitting 7.9% and over 115,000 formal jobs lost since Milei took office. Despite GDP growth, workers are suffering from wage cuts and job losses, while the government's austerity measures continue devastating public sector employment.

The economic recovery masks serious structural problems, with unemployment hitting 7.9% and over 115,000 formal jobs lost since Milei took office. Despite GDP growth, workers are suffering from wage cuts and job losses, while the government's austerity measures continue devastating public sector employment.

There's a 75% chance that Javier Milei will be reelected as president of Argentina before January 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 75% chance that Javier Milei will be reelected as president of Argentina before January 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Argentina's Q1 GDP Grows 5.8%

Argentina's Q1 GDP Grows 5.8%

Argentina

Economic conditions & trends

Finance

Money

Javier Milei's economic reforms are delivering spectacular results, with Argentina even outpacing China's growth rate. This Q1 expansion proves that fiscal discipline and free-market policies work better than the populist disasters of previous administrations. Investment is booming at 31.8% growth, showing business confidence in the new direction.

Javier Milei's economic reforms are delivering spectacular results, with Argentina even outpacing China's growth rate. This Q1 expansion proves that fiscal discipline and free-market policies work better than the populist disasters of previous administrations. Investment is booming at 31.8% growth, showing business confidence in the new direction.

This GDP growth is actually below forecasts, and does little to help Argentina to tackle its serious structural problems — tens of thousands of formal jobs have been lost since Milei took office and austerity measures have frozen wages and devastated the public sector. If the economy pick-up fails to seep through job market, then only a few will benefit from it.

This GDP growth is actually below forecasts, and does little to help Argentina to tackle its serious structural problems — tens of thousands of formal jobs have been lost since Milei took office and austerity measures have frozen wages and devastated the public sector. If the economy pick-up fails to seep through job market, then only a few will benefit from it.

Argentina's GDP Grows 5.8% in Q1

Argentina's Q1 GDP Grows 5.8% in Q1

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

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