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Argentina Economy Grows Less Than Expected as Imports Surge

Metaculus

Will Javier Milei be reelected as President of Argentina before January 1, 2028?

Reuters

Argentina GDP growth fastest since 2022, though lagging forecasts

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Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported on Monday that the country's economy in 2025 Q1 expanded year-on-year to 5.8 percent — the largest since 2022 Q3 — and to 0.8 percent in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Mercopress

Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported on Monday that the country's economy in 2025 Q1 expanded year-on-year to 5.8 percent  — the largest since 2022 Q3 — and to 0.8 percent in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

This comes as gross fixed capital formation surged 31.8% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter, with increases in machinery and equipment and transportation equipment sectors, as private consumption rose 11.6% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter.

La Derecha Diario

This comes as gross fixed capital formation surged 31.8% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter, with increases in machinery and equipment and transportation equipment sectors, as private consumption rose 11.6% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter.

Imports soared 42.8% annually and 17.7% quarterly, significantly outpacing exports which dropped 1.5% quarterly but grew 7.2% annually, creating a substantial trade imbalance during the recovery period.</span

The Rio Times

Imports soared 42.8% annually and 17.7% quarterly, significantly outpacing exports which dropped 1.5% quarterly but grew 7.2% annually, creating a substantial trade imbalance during the recovery period.

Forecasts

This comes as last week Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025, representing an increase from 6.4% in the previous quarter and marking the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

Buenos Aires Herald

Buenos Aires Times

This comes as last week Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025, representing an increase from 6.4% in the previous quarter and marking the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained Argentina's classification as a standalone market, the lowest tier, preventing up to $3 billion in potential investments from entering the country due to persistent capital control restrictions.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained Argentina's classification as a standalone market, the lowest tier, preventing up to $3 billion in potential investments from entering the country due to persistent capital control restrictions.

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Metaculus #0

Reuters #0

Private consumption rose 2.9% quarterly and 11.6% annually, while gross fixed capital formation surged 9.8% quarterly and 31.8% annually, driven by increases in construction, machinery and equipment, and transportation equipment sectors.</span

The Rio Times #

Mercopress #

Private consumption rose 2.9% quarterly and 11.6% annually, while gross fixed capital formation surged 9.8% quarterly and 31.8% annually, driven by increases in construction, machinery and equipment, and transportation equipment sectors.

Financial intermediation led sectoral growth at 27.2%, followed by fishing at 11.6% and hotels and restaurants at 9%, while construction declined 2.2% and public administration fell 1.2% compared to the previous year.</span

Financial intermediation led sectoral growth at 27.2%, followed by fishing at 11.6% and hotels and restaurants at 9%, while construction declined 2.2% and public administration fell 1.2% compared to the previous year.

Bloomberg #

Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025, representing an increase from 6.4% in the previous quarter and marking the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.</span

Buenos Aires Times #

Buenos Aires Herald #

Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2025, representing an increase from 6.4% in the previous quarter and marking the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.

Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained Argentina's classification as a standalone market, the lowest tier, preventing up to $3 billion in potential investments from entering the country due to persistent capital control restrictions.</span

Morgan Stanley Capital International maintained Argentina's classification as a standalone market, the lowest tier, preventing up to $3 billion in potential investments from entering the country due to persistent capital control restrictions.

The economic recovery masks serious structural problems, with unemployment hitting 7.9% and over 115,000 formal jobs lost since Milei took office. Despite GDP growth, workers are suffering from wage cuts and job losses, while the government's austerity measures continue devastating public sector employment.

The economic recovery masks serious structural problems, with unemployment hitting 7.9% and over 115,000 formal jobs lost since Milei took office. Despite GDP growth, workers are suffering from wage cuts and job losses, while the government's austerity measures continue devastating public sector employment.

Economic pick-up fails to filter through to job market

Argentina's GDP Surges 5.8% Despite Rising Unemployment

Argentina

Economic conditions & trends

Finance

Money

Milei's libertarian economic reforms are delivering spectacular results, with Argentina even outpacing China's growth rate. The 5.8% expansion proves that fiscal discipline and free-market policies work better than the populist disasters of previous administrations. Investment is booming at 31.8% growth, showing business confidence in the new direction.

Milei's libertarian economic reforms are delivering spectacular results, with Argentina even outpacing China's growth rate. The 5.8% expansion proves that fiscal discipline and free-market policies work better than the populist disasters of previous administrations. Investment is booming at 31.8% growth, showing business confidence in the new direction.

Argentina's economy is growing faster than current Chinese rates.

There's a 75% chance that Javier Milei will be reelected as president of Argentina before January 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 75% chance that Javier Milei will be reelected as president of Argentina before January 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Argentina's Q1 GDP Grows 5.8%

Argentina's Q1 GDP SurgesGrows 5.8% Despite Rising Unemployment

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