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Snapshot 6:Wed, Jun 25, 2025 11:33:33 AM GMT last edited by null

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds as Iran Suspends Nuclear Ties with IAEA

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds as Iran Suspends Nuclear Ties with IAEA

Above: Aftermath of an Israeli strike on the Evin Prison in north Tehran on June 23, 2025. Image copyright: NIKAN/Middle East Images/Getty Images

The Spin

DespiteFor the unprecedentedlast successfortnight, ofthe Israel’sIAEA campaignhas againstshown its true colors in its dealings with Iran, it'swith notits over.politically Israelmotivated isresolution insteadand enteringits arefusal newto phasecondemn ofIsrael’s theand conflictAmerica’s aggression, which willwas buildin uponflagrant theviolation achievements of theinternational 12-day operationlaw. WhileConsidering the ceasefire holdsthis, however,it theis IDFonly willfitting returnthat itsIran attentionsuspends tocooperation Gaza,with wherethe itUN willwatchdog continueuntil effortsit tocan freeguarantee the hostagessafety andof dismantleits Hamasfacilities.

ForDespite the lastunprecedented fortnight,success theof IAEAIsrael’s hascampaign shownagainst its true colors in its dealings with Iran, withit's itsnot politicallyover. motivatedIsrael resolutionis andinstead itsentering refusala tonew condemnphase Israel’sof andthe America’s aggressionconflict, which waswill inbuild flagrantupon violationthe achievements of internationalthe law12-day operation. ConsideringWhile thisthe ceasefire holds, ithowever, isthe onlyIDF fittingwill thatreturn Iranits suspendsattention cooperationto withGaza, thewhere UNit watchdogwill untilcontinue itefforts canto guaranteefree the safetyhostages ofand itsdismantle facilitiesHamas.

ThereFor isthe alast 90%fortnight, chancethe thatIAEA therehas willshown beits attrue leastcolors 1in its dealings with Iran,000 deathswith dueits topolitically directmotivated conflictresolution betweenand its refusal to condemn Israel’s and IranAmerica’s aggression, which was in 2025flagrant violation of international law. Considering this, accordingit tois only fitting that Iran suspends cooperation with the MetaculusUN predictionwatchdog communityuntil it can guarantee the safety of its facilities.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 90% chance that there will be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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