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Abandoning AUKUS would hand China a significant victory and destroy trust with America's closest allies who've already invested billions. This partnership strengthens collective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific while creating American jobs and boosting our industrial base. Walking away from committed allies would severely damage U.S.' credibility worldwide.
The strategic importance of the pact, combined with bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress, suggests AUKUS' survival is likely. While Trump may seek to renegotiate terms, the mutual benefits and Australia's significant investments make dismantling the agreement improbable.
There's a 50% chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by January 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.