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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk Survives Confidence Vote

Polish PMPrime Minister Donald Tusk Survives Confidence Vote After Election Loss

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk Survives Confidence Vote
Above: Donald Tusk speaks in Parliament ahead of a vote of confidence in Warsaw, Poland, on June 11, 2025.  Image credit: Damian Lemanski/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

TheThis narrowis confidencea votecrucial exposesreset thefor fundamental weakness of TuskPoland's fractureddemocratic coalitioninstitutions andafter hismonths personalof unpopularity,political withgridlock. 53Tusk's percentgovernment ofhas votersdelivered holdingreal negativeresults viewswith of his leadership. NawrockiEurope's presidentialhighest victoryeconomic signalsgrowth, therecord enddefense of the Tusk projectspending, asand votersrestored rejectinternational givingcredibility. tooThe muchcoalition's powerthree toout oneof politicalfour campelectoral whilevictories thesince government2023 failshighlight tocontinued deliverpublic onsupport keyfor promisesthe likepro-European judicialagenda reformdespite andpresidential abortion rightssetbacks.

The narrow confidence vote exposes the fundamental weakness of Tusk's fractured coalition and his unpopularity, with 53% of voters holding negative views of his leadership. Nawrocki's presidential victory signals the end of the Tusk project, as voters reject giving too much power to one political camp while the government fails to deliver on key promises like judicial reform and abortion rights.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 4% chance that Poland's GDP per capita (in USD) will exceed that of the U.K. before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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