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The narrow confidence vote exposes the fundamental weakness of Tusk's fractured coalition and his unpopularity, with 53% of voters holding negative views of his leadership. Nawrocki's presidential victory signals the end of the Tusk project, as voters reject giving too much power to one political camp while the government fails to deliver on key promises like judicial reform and abortion rights.
There's a 4% chance that Poland's GDP per capita (in USD) will exceed that of the U.K. before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.