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Snapshot 17:Wed, Jun 11, 2025 6:54:48 PM GMT last edited by Nick

US, China Agree on Trade Framework After London Talks

US, China Agree on Trade Framework After London Talks

Above: Howard Lutnick (C) speaks to the media at Lancaster House in London on June 10, 2025. Image copyright: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

This framework represents crucial progress in preventing economic warfare between the world's largest economies. The deal addresses China's weaponization of rare earth exports while offering a path to reduce crippling tariffs that have damaged global supply chains. Smart diplomacy prevailed over destructive confrontation.

President Trump just scored a massive win for American workers and industry. The China deal delivers rare earths on U.S. terms, imposes 55% tariffs on Chinese goods, and maintains a strong, cooperative relationship with China while reasserting U.S. leverage in global trade. This is Trump at his best — tough, strategic, and unapologetically pro-America. The ripple effects will supercharge the economy and redefine U.S. dominance in global trade.

The agreement lacks substance and represents another temporary bandage on fundamental trade imbalances. China continues to manipulate critical mineral exports while the US maintains necessary technology restrictions to protect national security interests. Real structural changes remain elusive.

The newly announced framework may signal progress, but it stops short of resolving the deep-rooted structural issues that have long plagued U.S.-China trade. Without clear commitments or enforcement mechanisms, it risks becoming yet another temporary pause rather than a lasting solution. Markets remain cautious, noting that trust is fragile — and tariffs are likely to remain high regardless.

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ThereIn today's ainterconnected 4%global chanceeconomy, thatthe thereU.S. willand beChina anneed activeeach warother between theplain and simple. The new trade framework hammered out in London reflects this mutual dependence. America relies on critical Chinese resources, such as rare earths, while China depends on U.S. technology and Chinamarket beforeaccess. 2027,This accordingdeal toisn't thejust Metaculusdiplomacy prediction communityit's a recognition that shared prosperity demands cooperation.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 4% chance that there will be an active war between the U.S. and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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