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Apocalyptic Predictions About Trump’s Trade Wars Never Came True. Here’s Why.

Bloomberg

World Bank Warns 2020S Face Weakest Global Growth Since 1960

Metaculus

Global recession by 2026 according to IMF?

Citing trade wars, the World Bank sharply downgrades global economic growth forecast to 2.3%

Reuters

World Bank Slashes Global Growth Forecast Trade Tensions Bite 2025 06 10

Wall Street Journal

World Bank Sees U Growth Rate Halving As Tariffs Slow Global Economy B5Ea7B5

Jerome Powell

Oxford Economics

Torsten Sløk

Kristina Hooper

U.S Chamber of Commerce

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

Howard Lutnick

Polymarket

Peter Berezin

Olu Sonola

Samy Chaar

American Bankers Association

Joseph Brusuelas

Wells Fargo

James Doti

Michael Gapen

William J. Luther 

Matt Schoeppner

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Bruce Kasman

Bernard Markstein

Yelena Maleyev

Mike Englund

Steven Hanke

Mark Zandi

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Larry Summers

"We believe there will be no recession in 2025."

The likelihood of a recession is "getting close to 50-50."

"Barring an unforeseeable event, the economy should grow even better in 2025 than it did in 2023 and 2024."

"The threat of a recession is real."

"Contrary to popular perception, the US is at greater risk of a recession than it was in early 2022."

Will the US Go into Recession in 2025?

Donald Trump

Grant Cardone

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Stephen Moore






Felix Salmon

Doug Melville

"It's very unlikely that there would be more demand for the gold card than there is right now for the EB-5, to say nothing of enough for Trump's $50 trillion goal."

"The Gold Card initiative represents a bold and innovative approach to addressing the U.S. national debt."

"200,000 of these gold, green cards is $1 trillion to pay down our debt and that's why the President is doing it."

"1 million passes would raise $5 trillion chipping away at our debt."

"If we sell 10 million, which is possible ... that's $50 trillion. That means our debt is totally paid off, and we have $15 trillion above that."

Will Trump's $5M Gold Card Pay Off the US Debt?

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The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, down from its January projection of 2.7%, citing heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty as significant headwinds for nearly all economies worldwide.

Openknowledge

The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, down from its January projection of 2.7%, citing heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty as significant headwinds for nearly all economies worldwide.

The World Bank expects the 20 European countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow 0.7% this year, down from 0.9% in 2024. Meanwhile, by 2027, the per capita GDP of developing economies is expected to be 6% below pre-pandemic levels.

The World Bank expects the 20 European countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow 0.7% this year, down from 0.9% in 2024. Meanwhile, by 2027, the per capita GDP of developing economies is expected to be 6% below pre-pandemic levels.

The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 1.4% in 2025, a sharp decline from 2.8% growth in 2024 and the steepest downgrade among major economies from the bank's January forecast of 2.3%.

New York Times

The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 1.4% in 2025, a sharp decline from 2.8% growth in 2024 and the steepest downgrade among major economies from the bank's January forecast of 2.3%.

China's economic growth is expected to decelerate from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 as the world's second-largest economy faces challenges from U.S. tariffs, a real estate market collapse, and an aging workforce.

China's economic growth is expected to decelerate from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 as the world's second-largest economy faces challenges from U.S. tariffs, a real estate market collapse, and an aging workforce.

India remains the fastest-growing major economy, with a projected growth rate of 6.3% in 2025. Although this represents a decline from 6.5% in 2024, it remains below the bank's earlier forecast of 6.7%.

The Economic Times

India remains the fastest-growing major economy, with a projected growth rate of 6.3% in 2025. Although this represents a decline from 6.5% in 2024, it remains below the bank's earlier forecast of 6.7%.

The World Bank warned that without swift policy adjustments, the global economy is likely to face its weakest non-recessionary growth pace since 2008, with developing economies particularly vulnerable to widening income gaps with wealthier nations.

The National

Quartz

XINHUA

The World Bank warned that without swift policy adjustments, the global economy is likely to face its weakest non-recessionary growth pace since 2008, with developing economies particularly vulnerable to widening income gaps with wealthier nations.

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The United States economy is projected to grow at just 1.4% in 2025, representing a sharp decline from 2.8% growth in 2024 and marking the steepest downgrade among major economies from the bank's January forecast of 2.3%.</span

New York Times #

NBC #

The United States economy is projected to grow at just 1.4% in 2025, representing a sharp decline from 2.8% growth in 2024 and marking the steepest downgrade among major economies from the bank's January forecast of 2.3%.

President Trump's tariff policies have pushed the average effective U.S. tariff rate to its highest level in nearly a century, with 10% taxes on imports from most countries and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum driving up costs domestically.</span

President Trump's tariff policies have pushed the average effective U.S. tariff rate to its highest level in nearly a century, with 10% taxes on imports from most countries and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum driving up costs domestically.

China's economic growth is expected to decelerate from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with the world's second-largest economy facing challenges from U.S. tariffs, real estate market collapse, and an aging workforce.</span

Reuters #

China's economic growth is expected to decelerate from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with the world's second-largest economy facing challenges from U.S. tariffs, real estate market collapse, and an aging workforce.

The World Bank warned that without swift policy corrections, the global economy faces its weakest non-recessionary growth pace since 2008, with developing economies particularly vulnerable to widening income gaps with richer nations.</span

The National #

Quartz #

The World Bank warned that without swift policy corrections, the global economy faces its weakest non-recessionary growth pace since 2008, with developing economies particularly vulnerable to widening income gaps with richer nations.

India remains the fastest-growing major economy with projected growth of 6.3% in 2025, though this represents a decline from 6.5% in 2024 and below the bank's earlier forecast of 6.7% due to export pressures from global uncertainties.</span

The Economic Times #

India remains the fastest-growing major economy with projected growth of 6.3% in 2025, though this represents a decline from 6.5% in 2024 and below the bank's earlier forecast of 6.7% due to export pressures from global uncertainties.

The tariff wars are creating unnecessary economic turbulence that hurts American consumers through higher prices while damaging global supply chains. This protectionist approach undermines decades of economic cooperation and threatens to trigger the weakest growth decade since the 1960s.

The tariff wars are creating unnecessary economic turbulence that hurts American consumers through higher prices while damaging global supply chains. This protectionist approach undermines decades of economic cooperation and threatens to trigger the weakest growth decade since the 1960s.

World Bank Forecast Underscores Cost of U.S. Trade War

World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Trade Wars

China

Economic conditions & trends

United States of America

World

Trump's trade policies are necessary to correct decades of unfair trade practices that have hollowed out American manufacturing. By targeting countries that engage in dumping, intellectual property theft, and currency manipulation, these tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, restore fair competition, and strengthen the U.S. economic position worldwide. These temporary economic adjustments will ultimately strengthen the U.S. economy by bringing jobs back home and compelling trading partners to negotiate more equitable deals.

Trump's trade policies are necessary to correct decades of unfair trade practices that have hollowed out American manufacturing. By targeting countries that engage in dumping, intellectual property theft, and currency manipulation, these tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, restore fair competition, and strengthen the U.S. economic position worldwide. These temporary economic adjustments will ultimately strengthen the U.S. economy by bringing jobs back home and compelling trading partners to negotiate more equitable deals.

Daily Caller

Small Business Owners Optimism Rebounded In May, Economists Say

Washington's bid to levy historic tariffs on global trade has sparked widespread economic concerns. The tariff wars are creating unnecessary economic turbulence that hurts American consumers, disrupt global supply chains, undermines decades of economic cooperation, and threatens to trigger the weakest growth decade since the 1960s. As a result, multiple growth forecasts have been cut, reflecting the anticipated slowdown in international trade and economic expansion due to heightened trade tensions.

Washington's bid to levy historic tariffs on global trade has sparked widespread economic concerns. The tariff wars are creating unnecessary economic turbulence that hurts American consumers, disrupt global supply chains, undermines decades of economic cooperation, and threatens to trigger the weakest growth decade since the 1960s. As a result, multiple growth forecasts have been cut, reflecting the anticipated slowdown in international trade and economic expansion due to heightened trade tensions.

The Times

Global economy heading for worst decade since 1960s

Semafor

Trump tariffs cast pall over global economic growth, World Bank reports

There's a 40% chance that there will be a global recession before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 40% chance that there will be a global recession before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Jonathan Walter &amp; Herve Bouilly/Contributor/AFP Infographics via Getty Images

World Bank Downgrades Global Growth Forecast to 2.3%

Jonathan Walter & Herve Bouilly/Contributor/AFP Infographics via Getty Images

World Bank Downgrades Global Growth Forecast to 2.3%

World Bank Downgrades Global Growth Forecast to 2.3%

World Bank CutsDowngrades Global Growth Forecast Amidto Trade Wars2.3%

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World Bank Downgrades Global Growth Forecast to 2.3%

World Bank CutsDowngrades Global Growth Forecast Amidto Trade Wars2.3%

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Sløk

Summers

Commerce

Sonola

Berezin

Salmon

Melville

Lutnick

Cardone

Trump

Articles on this story

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