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Snapshot 6:Wed, Jun 4, 2025 10:39:59 AM GMT last edited by Kani

US Reduces Syria Military Presence to Single Base

US Reduces Syria Military Presence to Single Base

Above: U.S. Army soldiers board a CH-47 Chinook helicopter while departing a remote combat outpost known as RLZ on May 25, 2021 near the Turkish border in northeastern Syria.  Image credit: John Moore/Getty Images

The Spin

ThisThe Trump administration's strategic withdrawal represents a smart policy recalibration after decades of failedinterventions interventionsby previous administrations with questionable results at best. The consolidation allows Americathe U.S. to maintain counter-terrorismits counterterrorism capabilities while reducing costly overseas commitments that are not in the U.S. national interest. Regional partners must step upin to fill security gaps as theWashington US transitions from guarantor to supporter role.

The Trump administration's hasty withdrawal abandons the Kurdish allies who sacrificed thousands fightingin the fight against ISIS alongside American forces. This retreat mid-transition creates dangerous security vacuums that extremist groups will exploit, particularlyespecially withas ISISthe IS is already claiming new attacks. America's credibility suffers when it abandonsbetrays partnersloyal midallies like the Kurds, who are now on their own again, including the fight against Turkish-transitionbacked opposition factions.

While the U.S. presents its pullout as a smart move, arguing that it alone cannot be made responsible for Syria's security, it is the U.S., through its anti-Assad proxy war, that created the miserable security situation in the first place. Washington is not only courting the jihadists it deployed against Assad in the name of democracy, but the U.S. military illegally occupies Syria's oil and agriculturally rich land. Now the U.S. is leaving the theater of yet another covert war.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that IS will return to Syria before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0