The Trump administration's strategic withdrawal represents a smart policy recalibration after decades of interventions by previous administrations with questionable results at best. The consolidation allows the U.S. to maintain its counterterrorism capabilities while reducing costly overseas commitments that are not in the U.S. national interest. Regional partners must step in to fill security gaps as Washington transitions from guarantor to supporter role.
The Trump administration's hasty withdrawal abandons the Kurdish allies who sacrificed thousands in the fight against ISIS alongside American forces. This retreat mid-transition creates dangerous security vacuums that extremist groups will exploit, especially as the IS is already claiming new attacks. America's credibility suffers when it betrays loyal allies like the Kurds, who are now on their own again, including the fight against Turkish-backed opposition factions.
While the USU.S. presents its pullout as a smart move, arguing that it alone cannot be made responsible for Syria's security, it is the US,U.S., through its anti-Assad proxy war, that iscreated responsible for the miserable security situation in the first place. Washington is now not only courting the jihadists it deployed against Assad in the name of democracy, but the USU.S. military illegally occupies Syria's oil and agriculturally rich land in Syria. Now the USU.S. is leaving the theater of yet another covert war.
There is a 50% chance that IS will return to Syria before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.