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Snapshot 10:Wed, Jun 4, 2025 10:34:46 AM GMT last edited by Kani

US Reduces Syria Military Presence to Single Base

US Reduces Syria Military Presence to Single Base

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The Spin

The Trump administration's strategic withdrawal represents a smart policy recalibration after decades of failed interventions by previous administrations benefitingwith aquestionable foreignresults peopleat best. The consolidation allows the U.S. to maintain its counterterrorism capabilities while reducing costly overseas commitments that are not in the U.S. national interest. Regional partners must step in to fill security gaps as Washington transitions from guarantor to supporter role.

The Trump administration's hasty withdrawal abandons the Kurdish allies who sacrificed thousands in the fight against ISIS alongside American forces. This retreat mid-transition creates dangerous security vacuums that extremist groups will exploit, especially as the IS is already claiming new attacks. America's credibility suffers when it betrays loyal allies like the Kurds, who are now on their own again, including the fight against Turkish-backed opposition factions.

While the US presents its pullout as a smart move, arguing that it alone cannot be responsible for Syria's security, it is the US, through its anti-Assad proxy war, that is responsible for the miserable security situation in the first place. Washington is now not only courting the jihadists it deployed against Assad in the name of democracy, but the US military illegally occupies oil and agriculturally rich land in Syria. Now the US is leaving the theater of yet another covert war.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that IS will return to Syria before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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