Chinas Tianwen-2 mission lifts off to explore unusual asteroids

Metaculus

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Global Times

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

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China's space agency launched the Tianwen-2 probe aboard a Long March 3B rocket from Xichang Satellite Launch Center on Thursday at 1:31 a.m. local time, marking the country's first mission to collect asteroid samples.</span

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New York Times

China's space agency launched the Tianwen-2 probe aboard a Long March 3B rocket from Xichang Satellite Launch Center on Thursday at 1:31 a.m. local time, marking the country's first mission to collect asteroid samples.

It will take around a year to reach Kamo'oalewa, a near-Earth asteroid that scientists believe may be a moon fragment. Japan's Hayabusa mission was reportedly the first mission to successfully retrieve samples from an asteroid.

People Daily

It will take around a year to reach Kamo'oalewa, a near-Earth asteroid that scientists believe may be a moon fragment. Japan's Hayabusa mission was reportedly the first mission to successfully retrieve samples from an asteroid.

After collecting samples using techniques like touch-and-go, hovering, and attachment sampling, the mission would return them to Earth by late 2027, potentially making China the third nation to retrieve such material.

Dw.Com

SpaceNews

After collecting samples using techniques like touch-and-go, hovering, and attachment sampling, the mission would return them to Earth by late 2027, potentially making China the third nation to retrieve such material.

The probe will then continue its journey to explore main-belt comet 311P, located between Mars and Jupiter, with an expected arrival around 2034 to study its unique characteristics as both an asteroid and comet.</span

Chinadaily

The probe will then continue its journey to explore main-belt comet 311P, located between Mars and Jupiter, with an expected arrival around 2034 to study its unique characteristics as both an asteroid and comet.

It faces key challenges given the asteroid's small size, with speed deviation tolerances under a meter per second, traveling at 11.2 kilometers a second. It has a secondary target: a comet to study as part of an extended 7-year mission.

South China Morning Post

It faces key challenges given the asteroid's small size, with speed deviation tolerances under a meter per second, traveling at 11.2 kilometers a second. It has a secondary target: a comet to study as part of an extended 7-year mission.

Scientists expect the samples to provide crucial insights into the early solar system's formation and evolution, as asteroids are considered cosmic fossils that have preserved their original composition from 4.5 billion years ago.</span

Scientists expect the samples to provide crucial insights into the early solar system's formation and evolution, as asteroids are considered cosmic fossils that have preserved their original composition from 4.5 billion years ago.

CNN #0

Metaculus #0

Chinadaily #

New York Times #

The spacecraft will spend approximately one year traveling to asteroid Kamo'oalewa (2016 HO3), a near-Earth asteroid measuring between 40-100 meters in diameter, which scientists believe could be a fragment of the moon.</span

Dw.Com #

CNN #

The spacecraft will spend approximately one year traveling to asteroid Kamo'oalewa (2016 HO3), a near-Earth asteroid measuring between 40-100 meters in diameter, which scientists believe could be a fragment of the moon.

After collecting samples using innovative techniques including touch-and-go, hovering, and attachment sampling methods, the mission plans to return the specimens to Earth by late 2027, potentially making China the third nation to retrieve asteroid material.</span

Global Times #

After collecting samples using innovative techniques including touch-and-go, hovering, and attachment sampling methods, the mission plans to return the specimens to Earth by late 2027, potentially making China the third nation to retrieve asteroid material.

The mission faces significant technical challenges due to the asteroid's small size and weak gravity, requiring extremely precise navigation with speed deviation tolerances under one meter per second despite the probe traveling at 11.2 kilometers per second.</span

The mission faces significant technical challenges due to the asteroid's small size and weak gravity, requiring extremely precise navigation with speed deviation tolerances under one meter per second despite the probe traveling at 11.2 kilometers per second.

The Tianwen-2 mission demonstrates China's rapidly advancing space capabilities and ambitious interplanetary exploration goals. The sophisticated multi-target mission design, incorporating both asteroid sampling and comet observation, showcases technological prowess on par with established space powers. This milestone reinforces China's position as a leading space nation, following successful Mars and lunar missions.

The Tianwen-2 mission demonstrates China's rapidly advancing space capabilities and ambitious interplanetary exploration goals. The sophisticated multi-target mission design, incorporating both asteroid sampling and comet observation, showcases technological prowess on par with established space powers. This milestone reinforces China's position as a leading space nation, following successful Mars and lunar missions.

China successfully launches its first asteroid probe and sampling mission Tianwen-2, continues interstellar exploration

China launches mission to get asteroid samples  DW  05

The mission's aggressive timeline and technical complexity raise concerns about the challenges ahead. The target asteroid's small size makes it the most diminutive ever attempted for sample collection, presenting unprecedented navigation and sampling difficulties. Previous asteroid sample return missions by Japan and NASA targeted much larger objects, making this endeavor particularly risky.

The mission's aggressive timeline and technical complexity raise concerns about the challenges ahead. The target asteroid's small size makes it the most diminutive ever attempted for sample collection, presenting unprecedented navigation and sampling difficulties. Previous asteroid sample return missions by Japan and NASA targeted much larger objects, making this endeavor particularly risky.

China Launches Tianwen-2 Mission to Capture Pieces of Near-Earth Asteroid

The US-China Conflict

China Launches Historic Asteroid Sample Return Mission

China

Science & technology

Space

China’s Tianwen-2 marks a staggering leap in deep-space exploration — precise, bold, and visionary. From Mars to asteroids, China now leads with systemic maturity and mission ambition. If humanity is to thrive beyond Earth, the U.S. and its allies must set aside rivalry and reawaken the spirit of Apollo-Soyuz. The cosmos demands collaboration, not cold war repetition.

China’s Tianwen-2 marks a staggering leap in deep-space exploration — precise, bold, and visionary. From Mars to asteroids, China now leads with systemic maturity and mission ambition. If humanity is to thrive beyond Earth, the U.S. and its allies must set aside rivalry and reawaken the spirit of Apollo-Soyuz. The cosmos demands collaboration, not cold war repetition.

The Chinaacademy

China's Tianwen-2 Mission: A Key Player in the Deep Space Exploration Triad

Atlantic Council

The case for the United States and China working together in space

China’s breakneck advances in space — the asteroid probe and sampling mission being its latest — should alarm the West. Behind the façade of exploration lies a state-driven machine weaponizing space, outpacing the U.S. in ambition. With counterspace weapons, lunar ambitions, and militarized policy, Beijing is not in a race—it’s preparing for dominance. The U.S. must wake up.

China’s breakneck advances in space — the asteroid probe and sampling mission being its latest — should alarm the West. Behind the façade of exploration lies a state-driven machine weaponizing space, outpacing the U.S. in ambition. With counterspace weapons, lunar ambitions, and militarized policy, Beijing is not in a race—it’s preparing for dominance. The U.S. must wake up.

U.S. Space Force chief: Chinas capabilities in orbit a destabilizing force

Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada

China: A Global Powers Ambitions in Outer Space

There is a 32% chance China will land the next person on the Moon, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 32% chance China will land the next person on the Moon, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

China Launches Historic Asteroid Sample Return Mission

China Launches Historic Asteroid Sample Return Mission

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China Launches Historic Asteroid Sample Return Mission

China Launches Historic Asteroid Sample Return Mission

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

Go Deeper

Articles on this story

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