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Scaling back US military engagement in Africa risks creating security vacuums that extremist groups could exploit. Many African militaries remain ill-equipped to handle growing terrorist threats independently, and reducing AFRICOM's presence could diminish America's ability to counter expanding Russian and Chinese influence across the continent.
There is a 30% chance that there will be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before July 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.