Poorest 75 nations face ‘tidal wave’ of debt repayments to China in 2025, study warns
GuardianMAY 24
China's lending practices are predatory debt-trap diplomacy designed to extract geopolitical concessions from vulnerable nations. The timing of massive loans to countries like Honduras and the Solomon Islands immediately after they switched recognition from Taiwan reveals Beijing's transactional approach to development finance. These unsustainable debt burdens are forcing countries to choose between servicing Chinese loans and funding basic services, such as healthcare and education, creating precisely the leverage China intended.
China provided crucial financing when Western creditors refused to invest in developing nations, offering a more reliable partnership than inconsistent Western aid. Beijing's lending followed international practices and market principles, with multilateral institutions and Western commercial creditors representing the primary source of debt pressure for developing countries. The current narrative unfairly scapegoats China while ignoring how Western nations are cutting foreign aid and withdrawing support precisely when these countries need help most.
There's a 59% chance that China's GDP will exceed the US' GDP in any year before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.