Sea level will rise fast even if we limit global warming to 1.5°C
New ScientistMAY 24
The current global climate target of 1.5°C is dangerously inadequate for protecting coastal communities. Today's ice loss far exceeds previous model predictions, indicating the world is already witnessing the unfolding of worst-case scenarios. Without immediate and drastic action to reduce temperatures below current levels, coastal cities face inevitable inundation and massive population displacement.
While the situation is serious, focusing on tipping points can distract from the fact that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters significantly. The 1.5°C target remains crucial as it would still allow more time for adaptation and reduce the rate of sea level rise compared to higher temperature scenarios. Continued technological and infrastructure development could help coastal communities adapt to moderate rises.
There's a 50% chance that sea level will rise 586 millimeters in 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.