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Snapshot 7:Tue, May 20, 2025 4:30:17 AM GMT last edited by Anna-Lisa

Former President Bolsonaro's Coup Trial Begins in Brazil

Former President Bolsonaro's Coup Trial Begins in Brazil

Above: Jair Bolsonaro greets supporters during a march in Brasilia on May 7, 2025. Image copyright: Sergio Lima/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Brazil is showing its commitment to protecting democracy and holding accountable whoever attempts to undermine its democratic institutions, which is a lesson to other countries facing similar challenges. Given that Bolsonaro has even confessed to having discussed a coup, it's only a matter of time before he and his accomplices are found guilty.

It'sBrazil hardlyis ashowing surpriseits thatcommitment Bolsonaroto protecting democracy and severalholding ofaccountable hiswhoever alliesattempts areto onundermine trialits fordemocratic aninstitutions, allegedwhich coupis plot.a Aslesson longto warned,other Braziliancountries conservativesfacing havesimilar beenchallenges. politicallyGiven persecutedthat since Bolsonaro's firsthas dayeven outconfessed ofto officehaving indiscussed a blatantcoup, exampleit's ofonly leftista lawfarematter of thetime verybefore samehe failedand strategyhis usedaccomplices inare Americafound against Trumpguilty.

ThereIt's hardly a 30%surprise chance that LuizBolsonaro Inácioand Lulaseveral daof Silvahis willallies beare reelectedon astrial presidentfor an alleged coup plot. As long warned, Brazilian conservatives have been politically persecuted since Bolsonaro's first day out of Braziloffice in Octobera 2026,blatant accordingexample toof leftist lawfare — the Metaculusvery predictionsame communityfailed strategy used in America against Trump.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 30% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as president of Brazil in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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