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It's hardly a surprise that Bolsonaro and several of his allies are on trial for an alleged coup plot. As long warned, Brazilian conservatives have been politically persecuted since Bolsonaro's first day out of office in a blatant example of leftist lawfare — the very same failed strategy used in America against Trump.
There's a 30% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as president of Brazil in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.