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Snapshot 7:Mon, May 19, 2025 8:04:02 PM GMT last edited by MattKalman

Trump, Putin Hold Two-Hour Phone Call

Trump-, Putin CallHold SparksTwo-Hour Hope,Phone Skepticism on Ukraine PeaceCall

Above: Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his meeting with students at the Sirius Education Center For Talented Children,on May 19, 2025 in Sirius, Russia. Image copyright: Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

In just months, Trump's decisive leadership sparkedhas athis pivotalwar callon withthe Putin,precipice which,of lasting over two hours and both leaders expressing optimism, signals a strong push for peace in Ukraineending. With immediate ceasefire talks now set, Ukraine and Russia eager to end the war, and both the Vatican and NATO offering to help, it appears Trump is about to finalize his promise to resolve this "bloodbath" and foster trade.

Trump's claimsis ofoverstating swiftthe success in Ukraine peace talks are overstatedfacts. His call withdidn't Putin,yield whilea lengthy, yielded no ceasefire commitment, only vague promises of future talks. Putin's maximalist demands and recent drone attacks, meanwhile, show little eagerness for peace, while Trump's past concessions to Russia raise fears he's too soft on Putin. Optimism is premature until Trump proves he can secure a fair deal without bowing to Moscow's pressure.

While this call certainly paves the way for peace talks, the U.S.United States and Ukraine must now show their respect for Russia during negotiations. This includesmeans afulfilling fullseveral demands, including Ukrainian withdrawal from theseveral Donetsk,regions Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye regions, plus a pledge to never admit Ukraine into NATO. These criteria address the war's root cause: NATO’s expansion. After such a productive conversation, all parties involved should now get what they need soon.

Despite Russia's continuingcontinued to invade his landinvasion, Zelensky, in the hopes of securing peace for his people, also welcomed this phone call. However, details of the proposed memorandum remain unclear, meaning a ceasefire may precede a full end to the war, allowing talks to progress. Russia must also compromise, especially on territorial demands, as Ukraine will not cede land. Transparency and Ukraine's inclusion in negotiations are vital for peace, while strong EU and U.S. sanctions on Russia are needed to ensure Moscow negotiates in good faith.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 48.3% chance that a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict will not go into effect before Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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