Metaculus

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

More than 100 killed in jihadi attack in northern Burkina Faso

Reuters

Al Qaeda Affiliate Says 200 Soldiers Killed Attack Burkina Military Site Reports 2025 05 15

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The Sahelian Islamist group and al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed to have killed 200 soldiers in an attack on an army base in northern Burkina Faso this week, the U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group said on Thursday.

Al Jazeera

The Sahelian Islamist group and al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed to have killed 200 soldiers in an attack on an army base in northern Burkina Faso this week, the U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group said on Thursday.

Satellite images from the day of the attack, which also targeted a police station and a market, show traces of fire and smoke over the military base in the town of Djibo, a nearby prison and plumes of smoke over a hospital and a market, with JNIM fighters blocking access to the base after the assault.

Yahoo News

The Straits Times

Satellite images from the day of the attack, which also targeted a police station and a market, show traces of fire and smoke over the military base in the town of Djibo, a nearby prison and plumes of smoke over a hospital and a market, with JNIM fighters blocking access to the base after the assault.

The attack, which, according to earlier reports, also targeted other towns in the country's north, occurred as Burkina Faso's interim president, Ibrahim Traoré, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss increased cooperation with the military government that came to power in 2022.

Global

The attack, which, according to earlier reports, also targeted other towns in the country's north, occurred as Burkina Faso's interim president, Ibrahim Traoré, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss increased cooperation with the military government that came to power in 2022.

The exact number of victims remains unknown, as the government of Burkina Faso has not issued an official statement on the attack on Djibo, before which the head of JNIM in Burkina Faso, Ousmane Dicko, reportedly called on the city's residents to leave the city for their safety in a video message.

SABC News

The exact number of victims remains unknown, as the government of Burkina Faso has not issued an official statement on the attack on Djibo, before which the head of JNIM in Burkina Faso, Ousmane Dicko, reportedly called on the city's residents to leave the city for their safety in a video message.

The latest attacks come as Human Rights Watch claimed that Burkina Faso's army and pro-government militias killed at least 130 civilians belonging to the Fulani ethnic group, who have been displaced en masse from Banwa province in recent months, near the western town of Solenzo in March.

Newscentral.Africa

EuroNews

The latest attacks come as Human Rights Watch claimed that Burkina Faso's army and pro-government militias killed at least 130 civilians belonging to the Fulani ethnic group, who have been displaced en masse from Banwa province in recent months, near the western town of Solenzo in March.

The latest attack, in which hundreds of assailants are said to have been involved, is one of the deadliest in the recent history of the landlocked country of 23 million people, which is one of the worst affected by the security crisis triggered by Islamist groups in the African Sahel region.

Understandingwar

The latest attack, in which hundreds of assailants are said to have been involved, is one of the deadliest in the recent history of the landlocked country of 23 million people, which is one of the worst affected by the security crisis triggered by Islamist groups in the African Sahel region.

Metaculus #0

NBC #0

Reuters #0

The Sahelian Islamist group and al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed on Thursday to have killed 200 soldiers in an attack on an army base in northern Burkina Faso this week, the U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group said on Thursday.

Al Jazeera #

Reuters #

The Sahelian Islamist group and al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed on Thursday to have killed 200 soldiers in an attack on an army base in northern Burkina Faso this week, the U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group said on Thursday.

Satellite images from the day of the attack, that also targeted a police station and a market, show traces of fire and smoke over the military base in the town of Djibo, a nearby prison and plumes of smoke over a hospital and a market, with JNIM fighters blocking access to the base after the assault.

Yahoo News #

The Straits Times #

Satellite images from the day of the attack, that also targeted a police station and a market, show traces of fire and smoke over the military base in the town of Djibo, a nearby prison and plumes of smoke over a hospital and a market, with JNIM fighters blocking access to the base after the assault.

Global #

RFI #

The exact number of victims remains unknown, as the government of Burkina Faso has not issued an official statement on the attack on Djibo, before which the head of the JMIN in Burkina Faso, Ousmane Dicko, reportedly called on the city's residents to leave the city for their safety in a video message.

SABC News #

MSN #

The exact number of victims remains unknown, as the government of Burkina Faso has not issued an official statement on the attack on Djibo, before which the head of the JMIN in Burkina Faso, Ousmane Dicko, reportedly called on the city's residents to leave the city for their safety in a video message.

Newscentral.Africa #

EuroNews #

The latest attack, in which hundreds of attackers are said to have been involved, is one of the deadliest in the recent history of the landlocked country of 23 million people, which is one of the worst affected by the security crisis triggered by Islamist groups in the African Sahel region.

NBC #

Understandingwar #

The latest attack, in which hundreds of attackers are said to have been involved, is one of the deadliest in the recent history of the landlocked country of 23 million people, which is one of the worst affected by the security crisis triggered by Islamist groups in the African Sahel region.

The attack exposes the failure of Burkina Faso's military junta to improve security despite promises made when seizing power. The government's counterinsurgency strategy has backfired by systematically encouraging state-sanctioned violence against civilians, particularly ethnic Fulanis, which has fueled militant recruitment and allowed JNIM to position itself as a protector of targeted communities.

The attack exposes the failure of Burkina Faso's military junta to improve security despite promises made when seizing power. The government's counterinsurgency strategy has backfired by systematically encouraging state-sanctioned violence against civilians, particularly ethnic Fulanis, which has fueled militant recruitment and allowed JNIM to position itself as a protector of targeted communities.

Burkina Faso forces killed more than 130 civilians in March attack, Human Rights Watch says

Africa File, May 15, 2025: JNIM Seizes Burkinabe Provincial Capital in Latest Blow to Traor; IS West Africa Regains the Advantage in Lake Chad; IS Sahel Operationalizes Support Networks in Nigeria; T

Foreign powers are just as involved in the terrorism that Burkina Faso is fighting as they are in the numerous assassination attempts on President Traoré. Traoré became a threat to Western interests by systematically cutting their influence in his country, turning to Russia, while introducing sweeping reforms. The growing popularity of the young charismatic leader with his anti-imperialist and anti-neocolonialist stance speaks for itself, and it is to be hoped that Traoré will not suffer the same fate as his idol, Thomas Sankara.

Foreign powers are just as involved in the terrorism that Burkina Faso is fighting as they are in the numerous assassination attempts on President Traoré. Traoré became a threat to Western interests by systematically cutting their influence in his country, turning to Russia, while introducing sweeping reforms. The growing popularity of the young charismatic leader with his anti-imperialist and anti-neocolonialist stance speaks for itself, and it is to be hoped that Traoré will not suffer the same fate as his idol, Thomas Sankara.

BBC News

BBC News #

Capt Ibrahim Traor: Why Burkina Faso's junta leader has captured hearts and minds around the world

Peoples Dispatch

Peoples Dispatch #

Terrorism We Are Witnessing Today Comes From Imperialism Burkina Fasos President Ibrahim Traore Tells Putin

There is a 35% chance that Burkina Faso will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 35% chance that Burkina Faso will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus #

Al-Qaeda Claims 200 Killed in Major Burkina Faso Attack

Olympia de Maismont/AFP via Getty Images

Al-Qaeda Claims 200 Killed in Major Burkina Faso Attack

Burkina Faso

Africa

Terrorism

Military

The attack exposes the failure of Burkina Faso's military junta to improve security despite promises made when seizing power. Moreover, the government's counterinsurgency strategy has backfired by systematically encouraging state-sanctioned violence against civilians, particularly ethnic Fulanis, which has fueled militant recruitment and allowed JNIM to position itself as a protector of targeted communities. It is not foreign powers that make a coup likely, but Traoré's increasingly autocratic and irresponsible policies.

The attack exposes the failure of Burkina Faso's military junta to improve security despite promises made when seizing power. Moreover, the government's counterinsurgency strategy has backfired by systematically encouraging state-sanctioned violence against civilians, particularly ethnic Fulanis, which has fueled militant recruitment and allowed JNIM to position itself as a protector of targeted communities. It is not foreign powers that make a coup likely, but Traoré's increasingly autocratic and irresponsible policies.

Al-Qaeda Claims 200 Killed in Major Burkina Faso Attack

Al-Qaeda Claims 200 Killed in Major Burkina Faso Attack

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Al-Qaeda Claims 200 Killed in Major Burkina Faso Attack

Al-Qaeda Claims 200 Killed in Major Burkina Faso Attack

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