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Snapshot 10:Fri, May 16, 2025 4:53:42 AM GMT last edited by Adam

Peru: New Cabinet Sworn In

Peru: New Cabinet Sworn In

Image copyright: Presidency of the Republic of Peru via ANDINA

The Spin

The continuous political turnover in Peru's government severely undermines the country's ability to address pressing issues like rising crime and economic instability. The frequent cabinet reshuffles and leadership changes create a governance vacuum that criminal organizations exploit, leading to increased violence and extortion. The historically low approval ratings reflect the public's growing frustration with ineffective governance.

A new cabinet will fail to solve the violence issues that have plagued Peru as long as President Dina Boluarte remains in office. She is responsible for the security crisis as her government has been disastrous in protecting citizens and holding accountable those committing crimes.

Boluarte has done all she can to tackle crime, even imposing curfews and deploying the military to fight an increase in illegal mining-related violence and other associated offenses. However, it's almost impossible to fight crime when congressmen from both sides of the aisle pass legislation that helps gangs to grow and protects them from law enforcement.

The constitutional mechanisms requiring complete cabinet resignations following a prime minister's departure ensure proper checks and balances in Peru's democratic system. This process allows for necessary governmental renewal and accountability, particularly when facing serious challenges like the current crime wave. The market's relatively stable response, as evidenced by Peru's tight Eurobond spreads, suggests underlying institutional strength despite political volatility.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 10% chance that Peru will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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