Will France call another election by 2026?
MetaculusJUL 20 2024
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force through next year's social security budget without a parliamentary vote, triggering immediate opposition backlash.
The budget includes €60B (US$63B) in measures, combining €40B in spending cuts and €20B in tax increases, aimed at reducing France's public deficit from this year's 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5% next year.The budget includes €60B ($63B) in measures, combining €40B in spending cuts and €20B in tax increases, aimed at reducing France's public deficit from this year's 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5% next year.
Barnier made last-minute concessions, including scrapping planned electricity tax increases and adjusting prescription drug reimbursement policies, but failed to secure sufficient support.Barnier made last-minute concessions — including scrapping planned electricity tax increases and adjusting prescription drug reimbursement policies — but failed to secure sufficient support.
Barnier's concessions to Marine Le Pen's far-right agenda signal a broader failure of France's political system and betraybetrays a desperate attempt to placate extremists, undermining the republic's principles. As mainstream parties fail to unify, Le Pen exploits the chaos, consolidating power while eroding democratic norms.
Macron’'s government continues proving its incompetence, with Barnier's harmful policies leaving the nation with rising borrowing costs, stagnating growth, and declining consumer confidence. It's clear that only the National Rally’'s pragmatic, growth-focused leadership can restore fiscal stability, protect pensions, and rebuild public trust.