Will France call another election by 2026?
MetaculusJUL 19 2024
French Prime Minister (PM) Michel Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force through next year's social security budget without a parliamentary vote, triggering immediate opposition backlash.
The budget plan includes €60B (US$63B) in measures, combining €40B in spending cuts and €20B in tax increases, aimed at reducing France's public deficit from this year's 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5% next year.
Barnier made last-minute concessions, including scrapping planned electricity tax increases and adjusting prescription drug reimbursement policies, but failed to secure sufficient support.
Barnier's concessions to Marine Le Pen's far-right agenda signal a broader failure of France's political system. His scrapped tax hike, restrictions on healthcare for migrants, and electoral reform proposals betray a desperate attempt to placate extremists, undermining the republic's principles. As mainstream parties fail to unify, Le Pen exploits the chaos, consolidating power while eroding democratic norms.
Macron’s government has proven its incompetence, paralyzing France with snap elections and reckless tax hikes. PM Barnier's harmful policies have left the nation with rising borrowing costs, stagnating growth, and declining consumer confidence. It's clear that only the National Rally’s pragmatic, growth-focused leadership can restore fiscal stability, protect pensions, and rebuild public trust.