Will France call another election by 2026?
MetaculusAug 06, 2024
The budget plan includes €60 billion in measures, combining €40 billion in spending cuts and €20 billion in tax increases, aimed at reducing France's public deficit from 6.1% to 5% of GDP.French Prime Minister (PM) Michel Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force through next year's social security budget without a parliamentary vote, triggering immediate opposition backlash.
Both the left-wing New Popular Front coalition and the far-right National Rally announced they would file no-confidence motions, with voting expected as early as Wednesday.The budget plan includes €60B (US$63B) in measures, combining €40B in spending cuts and €20B in tax increases, aimed at reducing France's public deficit from this year's 6.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5% next year.
The opposition needs 289 votes to topple the government, with the left-wing coalition controlling approximately 180-192 seats and the far-right holding 141 seats.Barnier made last-minute concessions, including scrapping planned electricity tax increases and adjusting prescription drug reimbursement policies, but failed to secure sufficient support.
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The government's unilateral action represents a denial of democracy and disregard for the will of 11 million voters, while the proposed austerity measures would weaken citizens' purchasing power and harm vulnerable populations. The budget cuts and tax hikes would be disastrous for ordinary French people.