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Snapshot 2:Fri, Nov 29, 2024 6:11:33 PM GMT last edited by KateHennig

Israel and Hezbollah Accuse Each Other of Cease-fire Violations

Israel and Hezbollah Accuse Each Other of CeasefireCease-fire Violations

Above: Displaced Lebanese residents returning to their homes inspect the damage in the southern Lebanese village of Tair Debba on Nov. 28, 2024, a day after a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. Image copyright: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP/Contributor via Getty Images

The Spin

After a lot of achievements and hard work in Lebanon, Hezbollah was severely weakened and forced to accept this agreement that will keep its operatives from Israel's borders. Nonetheless, Israel remains on guard for any violations of the ceasefire agreement and will swiftly respond to them.

While this shaky peace deal may at least bring some respite from destruction and bloodshed in southern Lebanon, the reality is that Israel's military will now refocus its efforts on the Gaza war which it has fought concurrently. The Palestinians in Gaza, who are already facing a worse humanitarian crisis than the Lebanese, will now feel further devastation.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 5% chance that the Gaza war will end and that significant progress will be made toward a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before Jan. 1, 2030.


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