Metaculus

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Reuters

Israeli Tank Fires 3 South Lebanese Towns Lebanese Security Sources Media Say 2024 11 28

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Intercept

Israel Agrees to Stop Bombing Lebanon — So It Can Keep Bombing Gaza

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Time

Trump Claims Credit for Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

CBS News

Israel and Hezbollah both claiming ceasefire violations on Day 2

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Atlantic

A Late Win for Biden in the Middle East

The exchange of accusations highlighted the fragility of the 60-day agreement brokered by the US and France that went into effect on Wednesday morning.

The exchange of accusations highlighted the fragility of the 60-day agreement brokered by the US and France that went into effect on Wednesday morning.

Under the terms of the deal, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from southern Lebanon within the 60-day transition period, while the Lebanese Army will deploy some 5K troops south of Litani River, including at 33 outposts on the border with Israel. Hezbollah, meanwhile, was banned from operating south of the river.

Timesofisrael

Under the terms of the deal, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from southern Lebanon within the 60-day transition period, while the Lebanese Army will deploy some 5K troops south of Litani River, including at 33 outposts on the border with Israel. Hezbollah, meanwhile, was banned from operating south of the river.

After the deal was struck, the IDF and Lebanese Army warned displaced residents of southern Lebanon from immediately returning until the IDF had completely withdrawn.

FOX News

After the deal was struck, the IDF and Lebanese Army warned displaced residents of southern Lebanon from immediately returning until the IDF had completely withdrawn.

This appeared to be at the root of disagreements with Israel stating Thursday that it opened fire at "suspects" with vehicles arriving at several areas in the southern zone, stating they had breached the conditions of the ceasefire. Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah lawmaker, said attacks targeted civilians that were returning home.

This appeared to be at the root of disagreements with Israel stating Thursday that it opened fire at "suspects" with vehicles arriving at several areas in the southern zone, stating they had breached the conditions of the ceasefire. Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah lawmaker, said attacks targeted civilians that were returning home.

Separately, Israel launched two airstrikes on Thursday. The IDF said one struck two Hezbollah operatives at a site in southern Lebanon that had been used in rocket attacks on Israel. The other attack struck what the IDF said was a Hezbollah weapons depot. According to local reports, the struck Baysariyah, outside of the restricted zone.

The Times of Israel

Separately, Israel launched two airstrikes on Thursday. The IDF said one struck two Hezbollah operatives at a site in southern Lebanon that had been used in rocket attacks on Israel. The other attack struck what the IDF said was a Hezbollah weapons depot. According to local reports, the struck Baysariyah, outside of the restricted zone.

There's a 5% chance that the Gaza war will end and that significant progress will be made toward a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030.

There's a 5% chance that the Gaza war will end and that significant progress will be made toward a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030.

Israel and Hezbollah Accuse Each Other of Ceasefire Violations

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Israel and Hezbollah Accuse Each Other of Ceasefire Violations

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

Go Deeper

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