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Snapshot 5:Fri, Nov 15, 2024 9:04:19 PM GMT last edited by Scott

Trump on Russia-Ukraine War: 'It's Gotta Stop'

Trump on Russia-Ukraine War: 'It's Gotta Stop'

Above: US Pres.-elect Donald Trump speaks at the America First Policy Institute Gala held at Mar-a-Lago on Nov. 14, 2024 in Palm Beach, Florida. Image copyright: Joe Raedle/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

InDespite all the electionhyperbole campaign,about how bad Trump constantlywould braggedbe thatfor Ukraine, if he woulddoes resolvesomehow themanage Russia-Ukraineto conflictpull onoff thea firstpeace daydeal of hiswhich presidency.he'll Whennot get the credit for — he assumeswill powerhave onsettled Jan.a 20draining, whilenearly he'sthree-year packingconflict histhat prospectivehas cabinetno withshortages MAGAin loyaliststhe amount of soldiers and surroundingcivilians himselfkilled withon radicalsboth whosides. parrotIt Russianmay talkingnot points,be he'llthe supportbest a bad-deal for Ukraine, onebut thatit's includesthe Ukrainereality cedingit itshas territoryto andaccept rewardingafter Putin'sbeing aggressionlied to by Democrats with slogans like "as long as it takes."

There'sIn athe 50%election chancecampaign, thereTrump willconstantly bebragged athat bilateralhe ceasewould resolve the Russia-fireUkraine orconflict peaceon agreementthe betweenfirst Russiaday of his presidency. When he assumes power on Jan. 20, while he's packing his prospective cabinet with MAGA loyalists and Ukrainesurrounding byhimself Januarywith 2026radicals who parrot Russian talking points, accordinghe'll tosupport thea Metaculusbad predictiondeal communityfor Ukraine, one that includes Ukraine ceding its territory and rewarding Putin's aggression.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by January 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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