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Snapshot 4:Fri, Nov 15, 2024 9:03:50 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Trump on Russia-Ukraine War: 'It's Gotta Stop'

Trump on Russia-Ukraine War: 'It's Gotta Stop'

Above: US Pres.-elect Donald Trump speaks at the America First Policy Institute Gala held at Mar-a-Lago on Nov. 14, 2024 in Palm Beach, Florida. Image copyright: Joe Raedle/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

DespiteIn all the hyperboleelection aboutcampaign, how bad Trump wouldconstantly bebragged forthat Ukraine, if he doeswould somehowresolve managethe toRussia-Ukraine pullconflict offon athe peacefirst dealday of whichhis he'llpresidency. notWhen get the credit for — he willassumes havepower settledon aJan. draining20, nearlywhile three-yearhe's conflictpacking thathis hasprospective nocabinet shortageswith inMAGA theloyalists amountand ofsurrounding soldiershimself andwith civiliansradicals killedwho onparrot bothRussian sides.talking Itpoints, mayhe'll notsupport bea best bad-deal for Ukraine, butone itsthat theincludes realityUkraine itceding hasits toterritory acceptand afterrewarding beingPutin's lied to by Democrats with slogans like "as long as it takesaggression."

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by January 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There'sDespite all the hyperbole about how bad Trump would be for Ukraine, if he does somehow manage to pull off a 50%peace chancedeal there which he'll not get the credit for — he will behave settled a bilateraldraining, ceasenearly three-fireyear orconflict peacethat agreementhas betweenno Russiashortages in the amount of soldiers and Ukrainecivilians bykilled Januaryon 2026both sides. It may not be the best deal for Ukraine, accordingbut toit's the Metaculusreality predictionit communityhas to accept after being lied to by Democrats with slogans like "as long as it takes."


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