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Snapshot 10:Wed, Nov 13, 2024 3:26:14 PM GMT last edited by ArthursSeat22

Argentina's Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%

Argentina's Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%

Above: Javier Milei, Argentina's president, delivers the 2025 budget at the National Congress in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Sept. 15, 2024. Image copyright: Tomas F. Cuesta/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Despite inheriting an economy ravaged by 211% inflation, Pres. Milei's bold "shock therapy" is bearing fruit in Argentina. His uncompromising focus on balancing budgets and ending money printing has driven inflation down dramatically. While the path has been painful, with necessary recession and spending cuts, the strategy's success is evident in renewed mortgage lending and surprising economic growth.

Argentina's economic challenges lie beyond just inflation. These include deep-seated fiscal deficits, repeated debt defaults, and a reliance on currency controls that distort trade and investment, and increase poverty. Milei is addressing these issues by cutting subsidies and public spending, yet these austerity measures risk public backlash and economic contraction. Structural reforms and eventual dollarization are Milei's goals, but they require cautious navigation.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 15% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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