Expected to appoint new members of his incoming administration, President-elect Donald Trump is currently considering Florida Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Congressman Michael Waltz as national security advisor. Rubio and Waltz share a strong belief that China is a threat to US dominance, making them both known for their aggressive stances. Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, which they will shape, promises an end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The whole idea is to avoid any more US military entanglements.
Many US diplomats will be glad to discover that President-elect Donald J. Trump is considering Rubio as his secretary of state, since they expected an unfriendly pick. Washington's foreign affairs establishment will benefit from Marco Rubio's selection, since Rubio is hardline on many foreign issues. Senate colleagues are unlikely to oppose his candidacy, as Rubio will strengthen US ties with friends and punish foes. Relations with Havana are expected to deteriorate.
If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, there is a 20% chance the US will control Tehran within one year, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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