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Snapshot 3:Mon, Nov 11, 2024 4:51:16 PM GMT last edited by TylerJ

UK: Prime Minister Starmer Attends Armistice Day in Paris With President Macron

UK: Prime Minister Starmer Attends Armistice Day in Paris With President Macron

Above: French President Emmanuel Macron (R) and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) walk towards the statue of Winston Churchill in Paris, on November 11, 2024, as part of the commemorations marking the 106th anniversary of the November 11, 1918. Image credit: CHRISTOPHE PETIT TESSON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

WhileStarmer's attendance in Paris at the personal invitation of Macron is a sign that relations between the UK and Starmerits European partners are finally beginning to heal post-Brexit. Given Germany's Armisticeongoing Daygovernmental meetingcollapse and uncertainly surrounding the decisions Trump may betake ain successfulhis mediasecond stuntterm, it is unlikelymore outsideimportant ofthan ever that the exchangelikes of superficialFrance pleasantriesand the eventUK willcome ensuretogether anythingin meaningfula changesign inof thestrength. UK'sThe relationshiptraditional withceremony Francein andremembrance theof EU.how MigrantsEurope continueonce fought to illegallydefend enterdemocracy, bothnot theattended UKby anda FranceBritish atleader recordsince ratesWinston Churchill, whileis European remainsapt unpreparedstage tofor effectivelysuch defenda itselfmessage if Trump decides to pullbe USsent supportacross forthe NATO and Ukraineworld.

While Macron and Starmer's Armistice Day meeting may be a successful media stunt, it is unlikely outside of the exchange of superficial pleasantries the event will ensure meaningful change. Migrants continue to illegally enter both the UK and France at record rates, while Europe remains unprepared to effectively defend itself if Trump decides to pull US support for NATO and Ukraine. With Pres. Biden yet to convince Trump to continue war efforts against Ukraine, and Labour unwilling to set out a plan to reach 2.5% GDP spending on defense, handshakes and photos are not enough to solve the growing list of crises.

As has been reported by The Telegraph, the purpose of Starmer and Macron's meeting is clear: to push America to green light the use of Western weapons in Russian sovereign territory. Despite repeated warnings by Moscow that any such action would be viewed as a major conflict escalation, it seems as if the UK, France, and its European partners are adamant on continuing their forever wars for personal gain.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 8% chance of a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0