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2024 'Virtually Certain' To Be Hottest Year, Pass 1.5 Degree Threshold

20232024 Shatters'Virtually GlobalCertain' TemperatureTo RecordsBe Hottest Year, ScientistsPass Warn1.5 Degree Threshold

Above: Smoke is emitted from the chimney of brick kiln in the Indian city of Jalandhar on December 20, 2017. Image credit: ***Please Replace*** SHAMMI MEHRA/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

The unprecedented temperature rise represents a human rights crisis, causing thousands of deaths, displacement, and loss of livelihoods through extreme weather events, making immediate action crucial for human survival.

The climate crisis has reached unprecedented levels with greenhouse gases accumulating faster than at any time in human history. Current emission levels guarantee catastrophic consequences for every nation's economy and billions of lives. Immediate and drastic action is required to prevent irreversible damage to Earth's climate systems.

The unprecedented warming demonstrates an urgent need for immediate action on fossil fuel emissions, as current planetary temperatures approach dangerous thresholds that could irreversibly damage entire ecosystems. Without rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, even these record temperatures will soon seem cool by comparison.

The unprecedented temperature rise demands immediate action to phase out fossil fuels, as current conditions will seem cool compared to future years without intervention. The situation has reached a critical point that threatens to irreversibly damage entire ecosystems, making the upcoming COP 28 conference crucial for global climate action.

EconomicThe developmentclimate andcrisis climatecontinues actionunabated mustas bethe balanced,Earth withcontinues developingto nationspass requiringthresholds financialthat supportwill lead to meetirreversible climatedamage goalsand threaten the future existence of life on Earth. TheIn NDCspite processof servesthe asdire aneed negotiatingfor mechanismreal toglobal securecooperation, necessaryanti-science fundingpopulists have actively denied climate change, with countriesUS seekingpresident-elect Donald Trump threatening to ensurewithdraw theirthe climateUS pledgesfrom arethe investableParis andAgreement. We can attractno bothlonger publicelect andright-wing privateanti-climate financezealots.

GovernmentEconomic plansdevelopment currentlyand allowclimate foraction twicemust thebe amountbalanced, ofwith fossildeveloping fuelnations productionrequiring neededfinancial support to maintainmeet theclimate 1goals.5-degree CelsiusThe targetNDC fromprocess theserves Parisas Agreement.a Thenegotiating situationmechanism requiresto balancedsecure considerationnecessary offunding, economicwith transitionscountries andseeking sustainableto development,ensure particularlytheir regardingclimate airpledges conditioningare needsinvestable inand affectedcan regionsattract both public and private finance.

GovernmentsGovernment worldwideplans are currently planningallow tofor extract and produce twice the amount of fossil fuelsfuel production needed to maintain the 1.5-degree Celsius target, whilefrom Elthe Niño'sParis peakAgreement. influenceThe hasn'tsituation yetrequires arrived.balanced Theconsideration combination of continuedeconomic fossiltransitions fuel production and naturalsustainable climatedevelopment, patternsparticularly suggestsregarding evenair higherconditioning temperaturesneeds ahead,in regardlessaffected of immediate actionregions.

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The climate lobby is using climate change for political ends by fear-mongering and misleading the public. In fact, evidence has shown that if the world dropped everything to meet the 1.5C goal, the costs would be greater than letting it come to pass and mitigating it. The climate scientists need to focus on real, pragmatic solutions instead of using climate policy as a Trojan horse for societal and economic change.

The economic and policy challenges of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors require balanced consideration, as current emission reduction targets have not yet resulted in actual decreases, highlighting the complexity of implementing effective climate policies.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that there will be 2.92C of globam warming by the year 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0