Japan: Ruling Party Loses Majority After Snap Election

Published OCT 28 2024

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Above: Shigeru Ishiba at the LDP's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Oct. 27, 2024. Image copyright: Toru Hanai/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Though Japan's opposition parties were unable to come to an official agreement prior to the election to finally remove a weakened and scandal-riddled LDP from power, momentum remains with the country's advocates for change following a hugely successful night for the CDPJ. Now, the real discussions must begin, as rival interests and ideologies must be placed to one side to ensure a new era for Japanese politics.

The Asahi Shimbun Kyodo News+

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that the LDP will lose its status as the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by July 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Despite a monumental blow to Ishiba and his coalition, the LDP remains Japan's largest party, and its continued governance of the country remains a plausible outcome of this election. Ishiba's ascension as LDP leader was intended as a break from the status quo political corruption that had marred Japan for so long — divided opposition may buy the prime minister time to shore up his position and turn the corner that the country so clearly desires.

South China Morning Post