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Snapshot 2:Mon, Oct 28, 2024 12:36:00 PM GMT last edited by TylerJ

Japan: Ruling LDP Loses Majority After Snap Election

Japan: Ruling LDP Loses Majority After Snap Election

Above: Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), during a news conference at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. Image copyright: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Japan's snap election has seen the ruling Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito lose their majority in the country's lower house of parliament, with no party reaching the required 233 seats.Japan's snap election has seen the ruling Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito lose their majority in the country's lower house of parliament, with no party reaching the required 233 seats. A vote on a new premiership will take place on Nov. 11.

  • According to state broadcaster NHK, LDP finished with 191 seats, followed by 148 seats for the Constitutional Democratic Party, 38 seats for the Japan Restoration Council, 28 seats for the National Democratic Party, and 24 seats for Komeito within the 465-seat chamber.


The Spin

Whilst Japan's opposition parties were unable to come to an official agreement prior to the election in order to finally remove a weakened and scandal-riddled LDP from power, momentum remains with the country's advocates for change following a hugely successful night for the CDP. Now the real discussions must begin as rival interests and ideologies must be placed to one side in order to ensure a new era for Japanese politics.

Whilst a monumental blow to Ishiba and his coalition, the LDP remain the largest party in Japan and their continued governance of the country remains a plausible outcome of this election. Ishiba's ascension as LDP leader was intended as a break from the status quo political corruption that had marred Japan for so long – divided opposition may buy the Prime Minister time to sure up his position and turn the corner that the country so clearly desires.


Metaculus Prediction


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