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Snapshot 4:Tue, Oct 22, 2024 5:36:51 PM GMT last edited by MattKalman

Report: Harris Campaign Worried About Losing 'Blue Wall' States

Report: Harris Campaign Worried About Losing 'Blue Wall' States

Above: Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris answers questions from the press before a town hall with former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) at the Royal Oak Music Theatre on October 21, 2024 in Royal Oak, Michigan. Image copyright: Sarah Rice/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The campaign of Democratic US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is reportedly preparing to lose at least one of the so-called "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which have gone to Democrats in almost every election since 1992.

  • The Blue Wall was won by Democrats from 1992-2012, then Donald Trump in 2016, before returning to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. However, recent RealClearPolitics polling averages have Trump slightly ahead in all three.

  • Harris is expected to win the necessary 270 Electoral College (EC) votes if she takes both the Blue Wall and one EC vote from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Pennsylvania, with 19 EC votes, is the primary focus of both candidates.


The Spin

You don't need anonymous reports from campaign sources to know the Democrats are terrified of losing the Blue Wall. Harris is losing steam so quickly that in each of the three states, other Democratic candidates are putting up ads saying they support Trump's policies. It seems Harris is not only losing the country but her party, too.


All the recent polls show is that this race is close, which puts Harris' grassroots campaign in a strong position. As Donald Trump continues alienating voters with his anti-democracy language, and Harris continues to meet with swing state voters, the Democratic nominee is on a path toward winning women, minorities, and the Electoral College.



Metaculus Prediction





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